Who will win? Dolphy, Sharon, Bong Revilla, Vic Sotto, Noynoy, Villar or Gibo?

When I was on my way to the podium (of the 2004 Republican National Convention) a gentleman stopped me and said I was as good a politician as I was an actor. What a cheap shot! — Arnold Schwarzenegger

You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on. — Spoken at a Washington dinner, March 2001, by George W. Bush

MANILA, Philippines - Sorry to the 99 presidential wannabees who (incredibly) filed their candidacies to follow in the controversial footsteps of Her Brazenness Gloria Macapagal Arroyo — “That’s incredible” is an understatement — but at the moment this writer is more interested to know who among our movie stars shall win the colorful boxing match in the 2009 Metro Manila Film Festival (MMFF) box office this Christmas.

By the way, I urge the public to support all fine-quality MMFF movies to give a big Christmas boost to the Philippine film industry because our government has failed miserably in lending support to local movies, unlike the admirable job South Korea or China does.

My fearless forecasts for the MMFF? It will be Dolphy with his Nobody, Nobody But Juan as No. 1 and Bong Revilla of Panday as a very close No. 2. I have always been an admirer of the “King of Comedy,” both as a talented performer and as a former poor Tondo kid whose own life is an inspiring “rags-to-riches” saga. I heard Dolphy’s movie has a very good, funny yet heart-warming storyline that will appeal to everyone of all ages.

 Bong Revilla also has an edge in recreating the late Fernando Poe, Jr.’s Panday, plus he has the backing of GMA-7 as his co-producer for this fantasy action flick. Vic Sotto’s movies have always been big hits in past MMFFs, so how will his latest fantasy comedy fare, a flick about a guy in love with a beautiful aswang (a vampire-like ghoul) played by Christine Reyes?

Will the plots of the Bong and Vic films be good? Will the special effects delight? Bong and Vic are good actors, but nowadays the local audiences paying over P135 per ticket want more sensible stories and entertaining good performances, not just star appeal.

A major contender for box office success is Megastar Sharon Cuneta Pangilinan due to her popularity and unquestionable talent, but it still will depend on whether Regal Films’ Mother Lily Monteverde has given her a good script depicting an ethnic Chinese family saga or if Mano Po 6 will be full of tired, trite stereotypes not accurately depicting our minority experience.

After already five incarnations of the Mano Po stories with the old formula of stars in cheongsams (almost no one in the Chinese community, even in Chinatown, wear cheongsams), accented Tagalog, and excessive angst over exaggerated family problems, even members of our Chinese community expect a credible story and a better-quality movie. If this latest Mano Po installment performs badly at the box office, it will not be the fault of the talented Sharon Cuneta who is still my bet to win the MMFF Best Actress Award.

The Filipino audience, even the so-called masa or masses, are no longer automatically lining up at movie theaters because of publicity gimmicks and the glitter of big-name stars. The times have changed. The public wants and deserves to be given good and entertaining movies!

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Thanks to ABS-CBN 2 for inviting me to their December 2 Harapan (“Face-to-face”) presidentiables forum held at University of Santo Tomas (UST) Medicine Auditorium. Thanks also to UST for inviting to their successful 7th Christmas Concert on Dec. 3 co-chaired by art patroness Maricris Zobel and Rev. Fr. Isidro Abaño, O.P. By the way, I noticed that Asia’s oldest university (congrats to UST on its upcoming quadricentennial or 400th anniversary in 2011) has no major presidential bet in 2010 despite having produced Presidents Quezon, Osmeña, Laurel and Diosdado Macapagal.

It would have been great to have UST and other schools with alumni seriously gunning for the Presidency next year, because I view the ongoing presidential race as shaping up to be a rematch of the exciting UAAP basketball rivalry — Ateneo Blue Eagle’s Team Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas versus University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons’ Team Manny Villar and Loren Legarda versus De La Salle Green Archers’ Gibo Teodoro and Edu Manzano. Who are you rooting for and why?

Apologies for not including ex-President Joseph “Erap” Estrada among the serious UAAP presidential contenders not because he is an Ateneo dropout — my former Ateneo Professor Emmanuel “Eric” Torres once told our class that the late Senator Ninoy Aquino was also an Ateneo dropout but that even dropouts are included as alumni. I no longer consider Erap to be winnable despite his No. 3 ranking in the surveys, but I believe the government shouldn’t disqualify him; let him run and allow him to bring his case directly to the people.

Even though I would not vote for Erap, I believe if he wins — which is highly improbable, it’s like lightning hitting a tree twice — all of us, including the Catholic bishops, the Makati Business Club crowd and others biased against him, should this time respect the mandate of the people if we are to be true to our commitment to one-man, one-vote participatory democracy. If we do not trust the masses for a one-man, one-vote presidential system and their unsurprising behavior of voting for populist candidates, then we should just shift to the British-style parliamentary system of Singapore, Australia, Israel, Thailand and Japan (but with safeguards against corrupt wheeler-dealers and warlords).  

Many readers have e-mailed me asking who I will vote for and who I believe might be good for the Philippine future. Since this is not a political column, I just wish to express my opinion that almost everyone on the list — from Noynoy, Villar, Gibo to Gordon and Eddie Villanueva — are all going to fare better than GMA as president, as long as the May 2010 election is credible.

GMA’s presidency has been fatally impaired — by the 2001 EDSA 2 uprising and the disputed 2004 election, plus the endless questions about her political legitimacy. No matter how hardworking GMA has been in genuinely pushing fiscal and economic reforms, even with zillions of pork barrel and patronage resources she has been giving away, similar to the modern-day 21st-century Tagalog movies, the people — including the masses — are no longer so easily hoodwinked!

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Comments welcome at willsoonflourish@gmail.com or at my Facebook account.