Predictions in the digital age

I am an un-schooled techie. Like many others, I am amazed at how much life has changed in the past 25 years due to the progress in technology.

This is an exploratory exercise in imagining how we will be living the rest of our lives. Consider the thought that we who are alive today are probably experiencing the most rapid developments in man’s evolution in terms of the speed of change and the intensity of the effect of the digital revolution on our lives.

I dare put on my futurist’s hat and spew scenarios and speculations that may or may not come true, or in the long or short term become laughter material. I don’t care. While I said I was a techie, I did not say I was a futurist. But who knows? In a world where few experts can seem to find their mojo and predict what will happen, I might just be right on a few things. And so in the spirit of recklessness and pure bravado, here are a few fearless forecasts:

1. Conflict resolution through war will still be pursued but will become increasingly too expensive and even silly. I believe this will be inevitable for two reasons: one, the world is way too interconnected now for one to think that bombing, strangling any nation or bringing it to its knees will not have a boomerang effect.

Too many countries have interests in the economic, cultural and migration matters of other countries. This means that, more and more, any action of one nation against another will have dire consequences affecting both sides.

The other reason is, modern man is becoming increasingly allergic to death tolls and body counts, especially on the battlefield, and economic and social dislocations brought about by war or acts of God like tsunamis, earthquakes and cyclones. In short, we are becoming more and more addicted to comfort and stability. 

The Internet has allowed universal access to the lives of people in democratic states and this has created aspirations in places where people are not as free. Political leaders everywhere will have to consider this. Look at Greece. It has, rightly or wrongly, refused to bite the bullet that will save its economy and that of Europe since it would mean more suffering for its people.

People will learn the value of cooperation and win-win arrangements. A caveat, though: people’s desire to do less war may be weakest when it comes to conflicting claims on water and food resources.

2. Changes in the political, social, economic and religious spheres will happen and at ever-greater speeds. A quick survey of the Arab world and even Western societies shows that institutions that took decades or centuries to build, like monarchies, economic and social systems, and even religions are being forced to adjust or perish. Dictators like Gadhafy and Mubarak, despots who seemed to be permanent political structures in their countries, have been kicked out in just weeks or months. And the tide is still rising, threatening other states.

In our lifetime, communism has all but vanished except in North Korea, and, arguably, Cuba. Capitalism is under siege and is being forced to change and acquire an upgrade app to include more of the 99 percent who are not rich.

The influence and following of the Church continues to shrink in many countries, its recruitment of priests and nuns at an historic low. Just five years ago, Pope Benedict XVI was feted like a hero-celebrity in Germany, his home country, when he became Pope. His last visit a few months ago was “underwhelming,” with German Catholics protesting that the church has not dealt firmly with hard issues such as pedophilia among priests, and has remained steadfast in its stance on gays, women priests and married priests in a world that is becoming ever more practical and secular.

To survive, political leaders, institutions, movements and religions must ensure that they remain relevant and positively affect the lives of the most number of people possible. This means that they must begin to embrace the values of inclusion, plurality, participation and reforms at speeds much faster than these institutions have ever faced historically. 

3. The power of the media will increasingly shift to the people. Most of what we know to be traditional, non-digitized media such as newspapers and magazines will shrink in influence or even disappear. Even now, there are many bloggers, tweeters and Facebook users who probably have greater audience reach than many traditional publications. The new “twitteratti” will reach more people and wield more influence than conventional print and even their electronic counterparts. In short, the democratized access to information through social media will redistribute market shares radically.

This also implies that, in effect, there will be greater public participation in all aspects of society and government. The simple fact that individuals have at their disposal the technology to talk to experts anywhere on the planet and express directly to their leaders their sentiments on issues, is a permanent game-changer. Not even China is being spared, although what could happen there may not completely resemble the liberalism or democratic practices of Western countries. But there will be more and more democratic space created. For sure, China’s political leadership will either have to shape up to adjust to the new world or become irrelevant. Repression as state policy will become less and less sustainable.

 4. A new type of real estate will be introduced to a public that will quickly tire from information overload and digital intrusion into all aspects of their lives. These real estate “properties” could be physical spaces where all things digital or capable of connecting to the virtual world will be banned or disabled. No Internet. No cameras. Not exactly Amish getaway resorts but safe havens from any kind of information eavesdropping. No infrastructure to nose around and record what one is doing. These are places where people can take a “vacation” from everything that can be digitized.

But there will also be the non-physical “spaces” — great swathes of cyber domains where people’s names, faces, activities or any digital imprint about them will be erased forever. A service will be offered that will make it possible for one’s entire personal history to be completely obliterated from the virtual world. People will probably pay a lot of money for this, if only to begin once again and create new but now well-thought out and planned virtual lives.

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