The business of following a gut feelI

One of my dear friends Ruth Velasco-Co – business wonder woman and proprietor of the successful Max Brenner Chocolate Bar, Haagen Dazs ice cream stores and the Oliver’s Sandwich restaurant chain – called me recently and invited me over to Max B in Greenbelt to try out her latest breakfast offerings.

Over the years, Ruth has impressed me with the way she has nurtured her babies. By babies, I am referring to her restaurant chains. She really knows a good business opportunity when she sees one. That’s why I always look forward to getting together because I learn so much from her.

"Did you know that in the olden days, chocolates were used as an aphrodisiac?" she casually asked me. I replied, "Can I order ‘to go’ then? I want to feed my wife a pound of chocolates tonight!"

I casually asked her, "How can you tell that a business idea or concept will work? So far, you’re three for three. Look at all the people here waiting in line to get a table here? You’re really very lucky in business."

Ruth just laughed and said, "Lucky? Hmm, I don’t know if luck is the right word. Restaurants are not overnight successes. It certainly takes more than luck to be in this business. Not a lot of people know about the hard work and the endless thinking that we do behind the scenes. Oliver’s is celebrating its 10th year now. You don’t stay in business for 10 years out of sheer luck."

I countered, "I know a lot of people who work hard too but they can’t seem to get a business going. What’s that elusive ingredient to success that you seem to have that other hardworking but not-so-successful people don’t have? How do you know that something will work? How do you know that people will go for your restaurant when there are so many to choose from?"

"I’m not sure," she replied. "Perhaps it’s gut feel? I really don’t know. But more often than not, I have this feeling inside of me that something will work. And luckily, more often than not, it does. The gut feel really starts when I see that a concept is different and unique. Not just simply different, OK? It must be different enough to stand out – and for people to be curious. In this day and age, you can’t be everything to everyone. You must have that unique selling proposition – something that sets you apart. And then you create a demand for that unique thing about your product through aggressive marketing. In the food business, I’ve always believed that providing a unique experience is the key," Ruth explained.

And through the years, Ruth’s gut feel has paid off. With Oliver’s, she went against the grain. Let’s face it, Pinoys are not a sandwich-eating lot. But because Oliver’s offered something new and unique, it stood out. With Haagen Dazs, it was the same principle. Ruth offered something different – a premium option when it comes to eating ice cream. And now, with Max Brenner, we all got introduced to a whole new culture – the chocolate culture. And you know, these days, people are always looking for something new and different. Basically, that perception and insight was the foundation of Ruth‘s gut feel.

The conversation with Ruth was still reverberating in my head the next day when I went to the office. I was thinking, "Is gut feeling based purely on a hunch? How do I know if my gut feel is the right thing?"

That morning, I got the answer. We had a meeting in MTV and we discussed about the theme of our upcoming music video awards show "MTV Pilipinas." And, curiously, the theme that we decided to have for the show is mysticism in the Philippines – the fortune-telling culture in Pinoy society. We figured it would be appropriate considering that in awards shows, everyone seems to try to predict who’s going to win. Plus, predicting is very much a part of Philippine culture. I’ll bet that every one of us, at one point in our lives, have sought advise from fortune-tellers because we feel angst about the future, and our fate. And that’s when I was able to differentiate between a mere hunch and gut feel.

Indeed, a fortune-teller and someone who uses gut feel both have an eye for the future. But while a fortune teller merely speculates based on feelings, and the random placement of cards, someone using gut feel uses facts, information, and keen insight to decide what his future will be. Gut feel is an educated and informed guess driven by instinct. Fortune-telling is merely a guess – in a funny outfit.

All of us have the ability to make a guess based on a strong feeling about something. But really, what we must be able to develop is the proper use of gut feel – the way Ruth and so many other successful business people have used it. Their guesses are always backed not just by a strong feeling, but by other things like facts, insight and information. It’s not based purely on what they want to believe. That’s precisely what sets them and their businesses apart. They are able to forecast, project and predict. And mind you, forecasting is not a guessing game. It’s a tool used in economics and business, and most businessmen use all the information they have now – facts from both the past and the present – to try to anticipate what’s going to happen in the future.

No one really knows what’s going to happen, and that’s a fact. A lot of weird things can happen out of the blue. But that doesn’t mean you just wait in the dark and grope. While unexpected things can happen, it is also worth noting that if those unexpected things don’t happen, we can prepare for certain things. By applying your best judgment on what you already know, you will be able to more or less predict where you or your business is going.

So we really have a choice, folks, be it in business or in life in general. We can either waste our time relying on general statements from a manghuhula such as "Mag-aasawa ka next year" or "Magtatagumpay ka sa negosyo mo." Or we can enhance our gut feel with a careful analysis of what’s currently going on and what has happened.

I really don’t recommend the former for obvious reasons. That’s something lazy bums would do. And we all know what happens to lazy bums. That we can predict. We don’t need gut feel for that.

The bottom line really is, get as much information as you can, and based on this information, internalize on how you feel on how to move forward. And once you have an idea on how to go about doing something, you just go for it.

Sure, you may fail. But at least you know that you proceeded to do something not based on whim, but on a lot of analysis, hard work and heavy thinking.

More often than not, if you’ve studied the information and if you’ve done your homework, your gut feel will almost always take you wherever you want to go.

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Thanks for your letters! You may e-mail me at rodnepo@yahoo.com. By the way, speaking of economics and forecasting, there’s an interesting talk happening on June 15 and 16 at the UA&P titled "The First 180 Days of the President-Elect: Great Expectations." Here’s a brief description of the seminar: "As the nation and our global partners transit into a post-election scenario, the environment becomes more difficult to analyze. Risks and uncertainties abound as delays and challenges confront the proclamation of the President-elect. But decision-makers need not speculate much. The University of Asia and the Pacific and the Center for Research and Communication presents this topic in this year’s timely and historical Mid-Year Briefing." The best minds in Business Economics research and applications will present their analyses and projections such as Jesus Estanislao, Emilio Antonio, Bernie Villegas, and Ramon Quesada, among others. Check out the UA&P website at http://www.uap.edu.ph/bec or e-mail rbalbieran@uap.edu.ph or japronstroller@uap.edu.ph.