Mrs. President, the economy is bad, but it is not hopeless
December 18, 2002 | 12:00am
Despite our multitude of socio-economic problems, why are President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the Philippines not hopeless? Last Dec. 12, philanthropist Dante Go hosted a cocktail reception in his Makati residence which was attended by President-Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, numerous business, political and diplomatic leaders, and top police and military generals.
My former economics professor at the Ateneo, President Arroyo asked me my opinion on the Philippine situation
My reply was very candid because I did not want to parrot the rosy statements of her bureaucrats in Malacañang Palace or her dimwitted political allies. If this were ancient China, I might have had my head chopped off, just like the honest Mandarins who told the truth that the masses were hungry, that the farms had bad harvests and that there was lawlessness and growing discontent in the empire.
It would have been a better option to be like sycophant eunuchs to praise the President and tell her what her propagandists have been proclaiming on television. But as her former student, I preferred to be honest to someone who was once a very good teacher to me.
So I said, "Ma’am, the Philippine economy is bad, but worse than that is the world’s perception of the Philippines which is even worse than our reality."
That evening, I could sense that despite her explanations about the positive statistics indicating a healthy economy, the President shared the impatience of a nation in need of a more dynamic economy. This was apparent in her questions, in her eagerness to see the Philippine economy grow faster than our bloated budget deficit or runaway population growth. (The next day, the President would announce the surprise change of the Socia Economic Planning Secretary from Dr. Dante Canlas to Romulo Neri.)
Despite her wielding supreme political power and the general impression of her as short in temper, the President that night manifested an open-minded attitude. She was down-to-earth, and relaxed and sincere in her willingness to hear contrary opinions.
Several guests and I were standing with the host Dante Go and President Arroyo when she asked for suggestions on the economy. I told her that our national situation is complex, perhaps our political system has become too unwieldy, we have too much negative sentiments, too much excess of politicking, and we need a lot of socio-economic reforms.
Seeing the host and the numerous dignitaries present, I couldn’t tell her that peace and order is still a major concern whether it involves terrorist activities, kidnapping or rebellions. I wanted to give many suggestions, such as the need for her to push for family planning, but I restrained myself out of respect for her and the host of the party. I heard some tycoons behind me saying, "Yes, give your suggestions to the President."
The President was not interested in my question, she was more keen in continuing the casual discussion about the Philippine economy. She mentioned that her administration and her economic team wanted to accelerate economic growth, that she plans to construct half a million new houses, that she has instructed Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) president Mon Paterno to undertake new "ro-ro" infrastructures that will connect the country’s major islands to each other, that the DBP alone has P20 billion for loans to the private sector, that her plan is to stimulate more small and medium-scale enterprises and other initiatives that were too long and too detailed I couldn’t catch up without a pen and paper to list down everything.
Critics may complain that the President has no charisma, that she might seem aloof or a very difficult taskmaster, but her rattling off economic ideas, statistics and her plans once again showed me and the crowd of VIPs that she has intellectual brilliance.
What then is wrong with our economy under the first economics professor to ever become Philippine President? It’s been said before: What we need is a leader, not just a brilliant economist.
The President has what it takes to be a bold reformer who will not fear offending powerful groups like the Catholic Church, the military and police generals, the Makati Business Club, the radical labor unions and others. But is it fair to expect this what with the volatile political conditions behind her phenomenal rise to political power? Can she push family planning without causing the Catholic bishops to blackmail her politically? Can she relieve generals with questionable careers who scare away investors, but who are nevertheless politically loyal and useful? Can she take great political risks with bold reforms while a vigilant pro-Estrada opposition awaits to pounce on her?
The well-known bad temper of the President is not in itself bad. In fact, she can use it to strike fear in the hearts of numerous misfits and incompetents in government no matter how high their ranks are or how gigantic their egos. China’s Premier Zhu Rongji has been nicknamed "Iron-faced Zhu" because he takes no false positive propaganda from his political underlings. Once, he even publicly scolded a group of provincial governors who kept reciting rose statistics. Another time, when he was in a factory, he angrily smashed to pieces appliances which he deemed substandard.
President Arroyo should be an inspirational leader who give hope to the Filipino nation. She should be the national cheerleader and teacher of the nation. She should direct her anger at mediocre sycophants or obsequious political allies who tell her lies about the economy being in a great shape. She should tell the nation that we are having difficulties, that the budget deficit is hitting record high, that the country’s industries are losing out to those in China and Vietnam, that we live in a tough and difficult new world order and that reforms are necessary to bring back about better times. And finally, that we should all unite and buckle down to work.
When will all her administration’s economic initiatives start and when will the impact of these projects be felt by the masses? She said that many of these are already being undertaken and that the others will be implemented immediately.
The President mentioned that the Philippine economic growth was four percent already, that we have the fourth best-performing economy in Asia next only to China, South Korea and Vietnam.
The President must know that four percent is nothing in a poor economy with a small base like that of the Philippines. Even a huge economy like China once targeted double-digit growth of 10 to 12 percent per year from 1978 to the late 1990s in order for the country to overcome mass poverty. Our own three or four percent yearly economic growth is very slow, especially with the country’s annual population growth of 2.3 percent due to lack of family planning under this administration.
The solicitous host Dante Go immediately went into his library and brought out a book by the American writer Gordon Chang entitled The Coming Collapse of China. Go told the President that all other Asian countries are experiencing problems; the Philippine economic sluggishness is not unique – it’s a worldwide slowdown. The President seemed to agree, saying Singapore has been experiencing difficulties, that Japan has been suffering a recession for so long.
But despite the growing pains of the Chinese economy in transition, it will continue to be a catalyst for Asia-Pacific progress and not a regional drag like Japan.
Among the topics discussed was her reelection, that she should announce her intention to seek reelection, and go on with her projects. The President said that politics was really not her top priority, that she was devoted to pursuing her socio-economic programs, that her goal was to alleviate mass poverty and to sustain a fast Philippine economic growth. "God will take care of the 2004 election and my political future."
For almost the next 15 minutes, the President eloquently expressed her deep faith in God, an almost fatalistic attitude not so different from that of former President Corazon C. Aquino.
It was a different Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo the night before she was to announce her new economic directions before the annual Philippine Business Conference at the Manila Hotel.
The President and the Philippine economy are not hopeless despite the disappointing pace of growth and the most dire predictions of cynics and critics. She has the potential to become a great leader if she wants to. She is intellectually brilliant and extremely hardworking, and open-minded enough to welcome contrary opinions and suggestions.
The President should aspire for an exalted place in Philippine history with politically bold reforms and to hell with reelection in 2004. Since she has only one and a half years to go, why not do the right thing now?
It may be too late tomorrow. As one of the country’s top three wealthiest billionaires sadly said when he was asked his prognosis of the economy: "This year will be better than next year."
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