Managed

Any moment now, we should be witnessing the Great Middle East Missile Show, a furious exchange of missile fire between Iran and Israel.

This great show in the sky is preceded by hysterical rhetoric. The Hezbollah claims it has missiles big enough to demolish Tel Aviv. The Iranians brag about their new hypersonic missile force.

Over the past few days, the Hezbollah sent a steady stream of missiles over the border from Southern Lebanon. The object, according to military analysts, is to exhaust Israel’s Iron Dome capacity.

The Iron Dome air defense system is a technological marvel. Recall Iran attacked Israel last April with about 300 missiles and drones. Nearly the entire attacking force was intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system supported by fighter aircraft deployed by the US, the UK, France and Jordan. The attack caused no significant damage.

The failure of that massive aerial attack stung Tehran. The Iranian leadership now seems determined to use better weapons to inflict some real damage. A steady stream of Russian cargo aircraft has been shuttling between Moscow and Tehran, presumably delivering more advanced weapons technology to support the expected missile swarm against Israel.

The US, over the past few days, deployed a carrier force and some of its most advanced warplanes in an effort to deter the expected Iranian offensive. If deterrence fails, the sophisticated fighting force will help reinforce the defense of Israel.

Israel will likely rely on active support from the air forces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These are frontline countries interested in preventing Tehran from achieving regional dominance.

One outspoken Iranian general indiscreetly claimed last week that his country possessed nuclear armaments that could be used to destroy Israel. That may be true or not. But such capability must have been factored in by Tel Aviv’s strategists.

Nothing could hold Iran back at this point. They need to perform some sort of retaliatory ritual against Israel to claw back some credibility. Last week, assassins that Tehran insists were Israeli killed one of the most senior Hamas officials right at the heart of the Iranian capital. It was an audacious operation that left the Iranian regime flustered.

In addition, Israeli forces assassinated an impressive string of commanders of both Hamas and the Hezbollah, both in Lebanon and in Gaza. These decapitation operations have left the militant groups in disarray. They desperately need some show of battlefield competence to shore up their standing.

So far, the missile barrages conducted by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern settlements have inflicted negligible damage. Beyond firing missiles from their sanctuaries in Lebanon, Hezbollah has no capability to overrun Israel’s defenses on its northern border.

As it was last April, whatever missile attack Iran and its proxy militias have planned is widely expected. All sides have signaled their readiness for this sort of engagement.

Iran is eager for another show of force to refurbish its status as a regional power. Israel is eager to inflict another embarrassing defeat on the forces that desire nothing short of the country’s complete destruction.

Russia, for its part, wants this escalation to continue. This is the reason it is airlifting so much military supplies to Tehran. The escalation in the Middle East will help distract the western alliance from its strong support for Ukraine. Western military supplies to Ukraine helped frustrate Russian aggression against its neighbor and brought the war there to a stalemate.

Russia failed to crush Ukrainian resistance. Moscow hopes to win by way of a long war of attrition and a sustained assault on her neighbor’s infrastructure to bring about economic collapse. The NATO countries have extended enough support to keep Kiev in the fight. Moscow’s best option is to open a second front.

Moscow’s strategists may not realize it, but Tehran and her proxies can only sustain a brief show of missile capability. It is basically an acoustic war that is shaping up.

Beyond a brief show of force, Iran risks exposing itself to the destruction of its strategic military facilities. Israel has repeatedly demonstrated its forces can run circles around Iran’s missile defenses even if these have been recently reinforced by Russian aid.

While missiles may start flying anytime now, few expect any real surprises. Iran has discreetly telegraphed its intentions, as it did last April. Israel and her allies will respond with only enough force to blunt the missile offensive.

This will be a managed show with only marginal opportunities for miscalculation.

Caloy

I could not let this day pass without joining the congratulatory chorus for Carlos Yulo, the first Filipino athlete to win two Olympic gold medals.

Caloy kept his nation up Sunday night. The vigil was well rewarded. Our athlete delivered a breathtaking performance worthy of Olympic gold.

Much of the focus in the social media chatter about Caloy’s spectacular feat has been on the incentives he will collect when he returns home. That will certainly be substantial. It will be magnified by endorsement offers by numerous local companies.

More focus should be put on the incredible effort Caloy put in to perfect his craft and polish his skills. This athlete spent his whole life making himself the champion he has become.

Thomas Edison instructed us many years ago that every great success is one percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration. Caloy embodies that. Let’s make the celebration about the 99 percent he put in.