Why FPJ’s dipsy-doo / Why GMA’s upsy-daisy

By all odds, it’s too early for an election postmortem. But this columnist more than two weeks ago already predicted President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s victory, and he sticks by his guns. Our "Fearless Forecast" seems to be vindicated and validated by subsequent events. Primo, GMA now rides the crest of the nation’s two prestigious survey groups, Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations. The likelihood is that this crest will bulge. Secundo – and this was completely unexpected – Fernando Poe Jr.’s earlier image of invincibility is beginning to crack. His mounted legions no longer pound the nation with the roaring stampede of Genghis Khan out to slay the barbarians.

All this is happening during the homestretch, hardly three weeks before May 10. By this time, the outlines are clear.

Unless sharp reversals occur either way, the momentum favors GMA to triumph over FPJ by something like five to eight percent. Already, Raul Roco’s tragic illness and possible withdrawal boosts the GMA camp. His followers – largely in the ABC category – can be expected in the bulk to switch to GMA. Raul Roco still enjoys 12-14 per cent of the total vote. The poor fellow is very ill, I understand, from prostate cancer which may have metastasized to the bones. I hope I am wrong.

What are these possible reversals?

Well, for one, Ping Lacson withdraws his presidential bid, joins FPJ and calls upon all his followers to vote for Da King. Lacson commands 10 percent of the vote. In a close neck-to-neck race between GMA and FPJ, Lacson could tilt the balance in favor of FPJ. For another, GMA can lose the lead and slide back disastrously. Under what circumstances? If the Philippine contingent in Iraq should be set upon and murdered in cold blood by Iraqi guerrillas. After all, the growing Iraqi insurgency and terror have set their sights on all nations standing shoulder-to-shoulder with America. Note what happened to Spain.

But let’s concentrate first on why FPJ is losing ground.

From the very beginning, FPJ was badly mismanaged. He was supposed to be a big improvement on Erap Estrada since he was more popular. Estrada was the big star. But FPJ was the "idol of the masses". He was Da King no less, and his very name struck the kind of thunder in the Philippines nobody else could. Sooo? So all FPJ had to do was post himself anywhere in the archipelago. And the masses would come like the sands of the sea, prostrate themselves before the towering Panday. Tapos ang boksing.

This was the first big blunder of Tito Sotto, Ed Angara, Tessie Oreta et al. Initially, FPJ outside of a movie set turned out to be a dud. A dodo. He was no Erap Estrada, who could "act" extemporaneously as a politician. Estrada could boast about his mistresses, his gladiatorial prowess in bed, his gambling, his drinking, his many excesses, and they loved him. Even Butz Aquino said he saw a lot of himself in Erap, and that was just okay.

On the other hand, FPJ was merchandized as a "perfect" husband, "perfect" in his personal life with no warts, no blemishes, no pimples. He had no executive abilities? Listen, his handlers said, FPJ set up his own movie production firm, made millions. What was more – and this was supposed to be his greatest asset as a presidential candidate – FPJ was the very soul of sincerity and integrity. Sincerity was the key to the presidency, we were told, and nobody personified this sincerity like FPJ.

Again tapos ang boksing.

What the handlers, the image-makers of FPJ forgot was that the art of communication, rather than sincerity and just popularity, was the open-o-sesame to Malacañang. Outside of a movie set, FPJ just couldn’t, wouldn’t communicate. He had the worst case of lockjaw, avoided debates and dialogues, had the mumps when dealing with media. His tangle with Sandra Aguinaldo, a GMA-7 TV reporter, was a lurid case in point. Poor FPJ. His image-makers forgot, plumb forgot, he needed a script everytime he forayed out the movies. So he stumbled, fumbled and fell all over the place.

Why not? In the case of ex-US president Ronald Reagan, he had "idiot cards" shoved repeatedly in his face by his PR experts so he would stay on track. His press conferences were pre-studied, pre-digested, pre-plumbed for every possible question. Reagan was repeatedly drilled on what to say, what to answer, what to avoid. As a result, he became the "great communicator" because he acted each line with the consummate skill of an actor. Which he was, for many years in Hollywood.

In retrospect, they should have done the same thing with FPJ.

And they could have done more. They should have researched on Emile Zola, his spectacular "j‚accuse" series of thunderbolts against the inept French government at the time. They should have rehearsed FPJ, culled the best from his Panday performances, stuffed his delivery with the accusing thunder of a Balagtas, or even of an Amado Hernandez, yes certainly that of Ninoy Aquino translated into Tagalog. This could have brought GMA to her knees. Filipinos just love moro-moro.

The opposition had the best movie producers and directors, the outstanding talents for "make believe", the props, the scriptwriters, of course, the propaganda expertise, the delivery system. They could have minted the most effective political mayhem against GMA. They could have transformed FPJ’s machinegun fists into words, into cinematic magic. They could have bought all the TV time they needed to propel their ward long before sunset to plunge his verbal daggers into the president. This would have hit the rafters, drew prolonged applause, ignited the masses.

Instead, what did they do? Hardly nothing.

They never took advantage of the outstanding asset of FPJ – acting. They left him to his lonesome, wriggling like a beached whale, in the campaign. They should have taught FPJ the first art of Philippine politics, to pretend, to make believe, to create the illusion you are Alexander the Great, or Superman, or Batman or the Lone Ranger. Everything in the Philippines, starting with the presidency, is pretence. Everything is sham, hambug, pomposity.

Sincerity, sincerity, sincerity. That’s all you heard and it became absolutely boring, a guitar string twanging the same tune, all the time for all time.

Thee is another factor explaining the FPJ slowdown. The FPJ forces are running out of funds at a time they need logistical support most. This has led to wrangling in the leadership ranks, authority and responsibility shifts, some mid-level resignations. This could be like the La Salle Green Archers bungling a 10-point lead and the Ateneo Blue Eagles exploding to the lead in the last quarter.

GMA, of course, is having a ball, having been behind in the surveys for a protracted period. Snatching the lead just before the homestretch gives the perception of a bandwagon roll. She has been very lucky and – to boot – cunning, crafty, diabolically clever behind the sweet, syrupy smile of a Little Orphan Annie working the audience for support and sympathy. Little do we know GMA has loaded guns concealed beneath her skirt and ready to spit lethal fire if the need should arise. This gal can be deadly.

They are hurling a growing spate of corruption charges at her at a time the whole nation – led by the politicians, of course – are embedded in corruption. It’s like the pot calling the kettle black. She can always retort – and she does aplenty – that the huge pile of moneybags she brings to the campaign is absolutely legit. That she is simply carrying out her duties as president of the republic, carrying them out, of course, largely in the known bailiwicks and provinces of FPJ.

The electorate today is not the electorate of yesterday with qualms and reservations about receiving money from the candidates. This was when Jaime Cardinal Sin issued his celebrated counsel: "Get the money but vote honestly for your chosen candidate." This hardly happens anymore. Poverty has become so widespread, political cynicism so pervasive. The need is to survive. So the poor grab the money, the goodies, and stay bought.

Ergo, the presidential candidate that pours more money into the campaign than anybody else has the decided advantage, the big edge. We are back to the supremacy of the political machine, the brassknuckle power of money, and to hell with political principles, honesty, integrity. The nation be damned.

Raul Roco learned this lesson too late, believing as he did in the innate goodness and nobility of republican democracy. He couldn’t believe the people themselves had been wolfed into the bottomless sinkhole of corruption. Brother Eddie Villanueva too will eventually learn the same lessons well, that his stirring gospel of Christian brotherhood will be knocked into a loop by Beelzebub.