The Estrada watch - WHY AND WHY NOT by Nelson A. Navarro

NEW YORK –Absolute denial and absolute disbelief do not mix. In the explosive world of Philippine politics today, these opposing forces add up to a classic formula for national disaster.

With much of the nation’s elite more or less united in demanding his resignation or impeachment, whichever comes first, President Estrada is in a hell of a jam. Like a caged tiger, all he can really do is cry persecution and whip up the old and desperate rich-versus-poor scenario that, take note, ultimately did no wonders for Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.

Estrada has fueled the fire by saying flat out that he would not stay "one minute longer" in office "if it is proven that I accepted a single centavo from illegal gambling or took it from the national coffers."

The whole problem is that poll after poll shows that people across the nation believe his accuser and confessed partner-in-crime, Luis "Chavit" Singson, that he indeed took upwards of P530 million in payoffs from illegal gambling and tobacco funds.

Evidently, Estrada is counting on his very entrenched and dominant congressional allies to stonewall the investigations and buy him more precious time to defuse the ticking timebombs of resignation and impeachment. This could be partly achieved if, as some administration loyalists believe, the growing united front of Estrada’s enemies could start jockeying and fighting against each other. But having smelled blood, the anti-Estrada coalition is more likely to go for the kill before engaging in self-destructive power games among themselves. The President’s intransigence assures that they stick together rather than turn on each other’s throats.

With last week’s exposé on the notorious Boracay mansion and other luxurious homes allegedly owned by the President or his mistresses, the corruption charges have acquired the kind of notorious visibility that once attached to President Elpidio Quirino’s "golden" chamber pot and the Marcoses’ alleged Manhattan properties which were videotaped in all their shocking glory by then-opposition politician and media rabblerouser Orly Mercado.

This propaganda setback was evident in the pelting of Boracay with plastic bags or bottles of smelly shrimp paste by an angry group of poor people and squatters. That this spectacle happened on the day the peso soared past the long-dreaded P50 to $1 exchange rate augurs more emotional and possibly more violent demonstrations in the coming days and weeks.

So distressing has been the erosion of Estrada’s popularity that Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, once his staunch supporter and the most segurista of politicians, has flung all caution to the wind by demanding his resignation. In no uncertain terms, Arroyo has declared that she is prepared to take over the reins of government and to save the nation from economic collapse and political chaos.

In finally and, some say, belatedly casting her lot with the powerful anti-Estrada forces led by the two living former Presidents, Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos, not to mention virtually the entire Roman Catholic hierarchy and the business elite, Arroyo may have acted more in the spirit of expediency than conviction. With growing rumblings about her own alleged jueteng connections and unacceptability as a moral alternative to the embattled Estrada, she had little choice but to "cut and cut clean" from the crumbling administration.

The President’s snide remarks about Arroyo’s being vertically challenged has, of course, turned what was initially a civil parting of ways into a potentially dangerous power struggle.

All bets are off. With his constitutional successor openly demanding that he turn over the keys of power, Estrada has to talk tough or witness the rapid evaporation of his political authority. But in any case, this cannot possibly prevent many sectors of the military and bureaucracy, normally loyal to whoever occupies Malacanang, from rethinking and changing options and alliances.

Clearly, there is now an Estrada watch or the political equivalent of a death watch on the administration.

The growing consensus is that Estrada will have to face the brutal truth more sooner than later.

True, constitutional processes and legal procedure argue for dispassionate discussion of the corruption charges against the President. As he has himself loudly complained, he has been found guilty by his enemies before all the facts of the case and his own defense have been factored into the question.

But Jueteng-gate is no ordinary court case. It is a political scandal in which if you’re not the hero, you’re the villain. Just like in the action movies a certain actor named Joseph Estrada used to make. Unfortunately for the former movie hero, he has been painted in the darkest colors and he’s playing in real life, not in another movie where he can simply change the script and come out victorious in the end and in the nick of time. In short, he has to sink or swim in the face of the most crippling political crisis ever to hit any Filipino president so early in his term.

Estrada’s defense, assuming he’s just an innocent victim of political machinations, should have come early and with convincing force right after Singson spewed out mindboggling allegations of corruption. Counting on the administration’s tried-and-tested LAMP majorities in both Houses of Congress could only have widened Estrada’s credibility gap and played into the opposition’s game of killing his wounded presidency with a thousand cuts.

In politics, perception is everything. By relying on sophisticated legal tricks and convoluted parliamentary maneuvers, the administration has only succeeded in increasing the level of public skepticism, which was already nearing flood stage when Singson stepped into the limelight and exploded his bombs.

Between the immovable object that is the Estrada presidency and the irresistible forces that want him out (and as soon as possible), there may be no more time or opportunity left for a reasonable meeting of the minds or peaceful transfer of power.

With the economy in free fall and politics in such disarray, all hell could break loose any at any moment. The great danger is that the nation will simply be overtaken by events leading to God knows where. And that’s a pity.

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Nelson A. Navarro's e-mail address: [email protected]