Repudiated

We were treated to a slew of public opinion polls the past week. All of them told the same story: if elections were held today, Sara Duterte will dominate the field. One out of every two voters will choose her to lead the country.

This is the headline that makes efforts to politically demolish her even more urgent. Acquittal by the impeachment court will magnify her political stock even more. Her accession to power becomes inevitable – and it is too late in the day to change the rules of the game.

Conviction by the impeachment court, on the other hand, will raise political tensions to an intolerable level and deepen polarization beyond repair. There is no scenario in this politically instigated impeachment drama that produces a win for this bludgeoned nation.

Those who contrived the impeachment drama assumed a repeat of the political destruction of Jejomar Binay a decade ago. Many of the same characters who played roles in the political assassination of Binay recur in the current drama.

But instead of weakening Sara’s support, the intense campaign against her appears to fortify allegiance to her. The matter has become larger than her person. She is seen as the antidote to a failed presidency. She will dig up all the crimes the incumbents want buried.

It is easy to understand the plain electoral arithmetic underpinning Sara’s dominant position. She enjoys nearly total voter support in Mindanao. She overwhelms all possible rivals in the Visayas. She splits the Luzon vote, with momentum in her favor as the incumbent’s approval ratings sink further under water.

But the voter preference for Sara is not the only emphatic thing the surveys tell us.

Sen. Bong Go dominates voter preference for vice president. Sen. Robin Padilla leads the potential senatorial race by a mile. None of President Marcos Jr.’s allies figure anywhere close to the winning circle. None of the liberals and leftist personalities, who are in implicit alliance with the Marcos administration, post numbers that may be considered viable.

The closest challenger to Sara’s dominance is former vice president Leonor Robredo. She has, however, declared disinterest in seeking the presidency a second time – although those who dread a Sara presidency are frantically trying to change her mind.

There is a larger, more profound narrative the survey numbers weave. This deserves more incisive discussion.

Our voters, in stark numbers, have repudiated the Marcos II administration. They will not tolerate a continuation of the same rule in another guise. They will not tolerate those associated with this failed presidency to further entrench in power.

Our voters are so disappointed they will accept whatever risk there might be to kicking the rascals out. Convict Sara at the impeachment court and the door will be opened to a Robin Padilla presidency.

Restitution

Another year, another State of the Nation speech. Expectations are moderated all around. The President himself appears to recognize that no speech at this late point in his term will alter the dynamic of polarization that has taken deep root.

The same opinion polls that forecast electoral prospects also indicate that public concern over corruption has now equaled concern over inflation – traditionally the foremost concern. This does not tell us inflation has become less important. It tells us that too little has been done to root out corruption.

Nearly a year after the flood control scandal blew up in the nation’s face and took the wind out of our economic performance, the “big fish” still swim freely. We were promised they would be in jail by last Christmas. That did not happen.

We know our judicial system is tedious. But the delay in advancing cases against the more prominent names linked to the flood-control scandal has been unduly slow – even by the notorious standards of our justice system. Increasingly, people are suspecting the delay is due to backroom negotiations going on between the investigators and the high-profile personalities involved.

The ombudsman has repeatedly promised cases will soon be filed. But he might have unwittingly undermined progress in the cases in two ways: first, by raising the standard for filing cases to reasonable certainty of conviction; second, by opening the possibility that some form of restitution could alter either the gravity or the certainty of cases to be filed.

There is also the possibility that the filing of cases might be filtered by partisan considerations. Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Rodante Marcoleta were swiftly and unremittingly jailed. Both were identified with the pro-Duterte bloc. Meanwhile, no congressman has been indicted and plunder cases against former speaker Martin Romualdez remain at the preliminary investigation stage.

Ombudsman Jesus Remulla undermines his own credibility by promising cases to be filed “soon” or within “two weeks.” Those self-imposed timelines have come and gone.

The political grapevine is rife with all sorts of rumors about brokers intervening to win better treatment for their principals. Names have been mentioned. Cases have been identified.

Former DPWH secretary Manuel Bonoan has been reclassified as “state witness” – allegedly because his testimony will help boost the case against Romualdez. The Discaya couple are rumored to be exploring the avenue of “restitution” to get themselves reclassified as state witnesses. Assistant Ombudsman Mico Clavano tried to make return of part of the looted funds as “accountability” rather than proof of robbery.

A cottage industry of “intermediaries” has since sprouted over “restitution.”