An ‘earth-shaking’ SONA?

On Monday, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. will deliver his fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA), one of only two remaining before his term ends in 2028. Much of the anticipation stems from his 2025 “Mahiya naman kayo” SONA, delivered in the aftermath of devastating floods that submerged large parts of Luzon, during which he publicly exposed the multibillion-peso flood control corruption scandal and vowed to hold all those responsible to account.

A recent survey showed that the issue Filipinos most want the President to address is the state of his anti-corruption campaign, particularly the flood control scandal. Having set the narrative himself, the President now faces the challenge of accounting for its results.

The defining question of this year’s SONA is straightforward. One year after declaring war on corruption, has the administration caught the big fish? Have all those who plundered public funds been prosecuted, or has the promise of accountability faded like the UniTeam slogan?

Corruption, however, is only part of the story. Filipinos also expect answers to the economic issues that continue to shape everyday life. The rising cost of basic goods, the scarcity of quality jobs and fragile livelihoods remain pressing concerns, made worse by the global oil price crisis triggered by the US-Iran war.

As such, if Marcos Jr.’s SONA last year was about naming the problem, this year’s must be about proving that he has delivered substantial results. After all, big promises were made. Naturally, their fulfilment must be equally compelling.

On corruption, after a year of bold pronouncements, left and right investigations, the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) closing unceremoniously like a bankrupt sari-sari store and one missed deadline after another for filing charges, the administration finally has something to show.

First to fall were the Discaya couple and the corrupt high officials and engineers of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). Next, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada and former senator Bong Revilla were charged with plunder and sent to jail. Sen. Rodante Marcoleta likewise ended up behind bars, although in his case, the bigwig lawmaker did much of the work in sending himself to jail.

Former congressman and fugitive Zaldy Co was issued a warrant of arrest and became the subject of an Interpol Red Notice, likewise in connection with the flood control corruption scandal.

Yet the administration’s anti-corruption campaign remains notably incomplete. Missing from the picture are the many lawmakers, mostly from the House of Representatives, who were invited by the ICI for investigation but whose names never appeared in formal complaints. Equally absent are other senators who had likewise been linked to the scandal.

Meanwhile, the President’s principal dynastic rival, Vice President Sara Duterte, has been impeached for a second time by his congressional supermajority and is now on trial before the Senate sitting as an impeachment court.

Taken together, these developments have reinforced criticism that Marcos Jr.’s anti-corruption crusade has been selective. While the administration has secured several high-profile prosecutions, the absence of charges against other personalities implicated in the same corruption scandal has fuelled perceptions that its anti-corruption drive has been shaped as much by its dynastic war with the Dutertes as by a genuine commitment to accountability.

The same pattern of mixed results is evident in the administration’s legislative agenda. Although the House of Representatives passed the Right to Information Bill, the anti-political dynasty bill it approved is largely toothless. The party-list reform bill and the Independent People’s Commission Act remain nowhere near enactment.

Its foreign policy likewise presents a similarly mixed picture. Marcos Jr. announced that the Philippines seeks to “reset” its relationship with China after Chinese attacks in the West Philippine Sea that injured Filipino frontliners. Frankly, if there is anything his administration should reset, it is the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA)’s overly soft approach towards Beijing, especially its “dumber than dumb” policy of entering into a provisional agreement with China in Ayungin Shoal.

That mixed record extends to the economy. The President will almost certainly highlight the country’s new status as an upper-middle income economy under the World Bank’s classification. On paper, this means our economy has grown enough to push average income above the international threshold, making the Philippines more attractive to foreign investors and signalling it has moved beyond poorer developing nations.

But for many working Filipinos, this has yet to translate into a better life.

Workers continue to struggle with wages that fall far short of the rising cost of living. Even in the National Capital Region (NCR), where the minimum wage is highest at P755 a day, a full-time worker earns only about P16,000 to P19,000 a month. Instead of approving a P200 legislated national wage hike sought by labor groups, the administration granted only a P85 increase – belated, inadequate and, worse, payable in two installments.

At the same time, households and businesses continue to grapple with some of Southeast Asia’s highest electricity rates, while Meralco bills remain burdened by opaque pass-through charges and adjustments that many consumers struggle to understand, raising persistent concerns over transparency and accountability.

Against this backdrop, Malacañang has promised that this year’s SONA will be “earth-shaking.”

Really? The biggest tremor may not come from the President’s SONA itself, but from the gap between rhetoric and reality. His anti-corruption campaign has produced results, yet much remains to be desired. The economy may have grown on paper, but many households continue to struggle with stagnant wages and rising prices.

Marcos Jr. spoke of a “reset.” But what arguably needs resetting most is his administration’s governance, which has largely been jogging in place and producing uneven results. If anything is likely to shake on Monday, it may well be the administration’s narrative that it has delivered the goods.