Battle-ready

Two aircraft carrier battle groups are within range. Squadrons of advanced fighter planes have relocated from bases around the world to Iran’s periphery. All the resources needed for a punishing strike against the Tehran regime are in place.

Should the US decide to launch what it calls the “military option” over the next few days, a potentially destabilizing episode could ensue. Some are predicting a regional conflagration. Others fear a much wider conflict: something akin to World War III.

Washington maintains that diplomacy remains its “first option.” But what it demands from Iran is fully dismantling its nuclear program. Tehran is unlikely to concede on that. The diplomatic headroom for this is basically non-existent.

Last year, after ordering B-2 bombers to hit Iran’s missile installations with bunker-busting bombs, Trump was quick to declare Tehran’s missile capability “obliterated.” Today, the whole point of US diplomacy is to get Iran to give up its apparently still potent missile strike capability. Trump lied to us as usual.

It has taken weeks for the US to assemble a strike force against Tehran. At the maximum, the Americans are hoping that a devastating strike against the Islamist rulers of Iran will produce regime change. That hope might be unwarranted.

While the Americans were building up their combat forces in the Middle East, Russia and China have not been idle. They have been airlifting modern weaponry to their allies in Tehran. The new weaponry might have the practical effect of dissuading Trump from mounting an attack. If that fails, the advanced arsenal will ensure that a military assault by the US will not be cost-free.

The US may have assembled a formidable armada around Iran. But weapons such as hypersonic missiles could manage to inflict a heavy toll – including taking down one or both aircraft carriers the Americans have moved into the potential battle zone. The hypersonic missiles are complemented by hundreds of drones that could swarm US naval forces. Iran has also assembled hundreds of missile-equipped fast boats for its coastal defense.

In the brief skirmish the last time, Iran proved it could hurt Israel with its missiles. Over the past few weeks, it has probably improved on its capacity to hit Israel from afar.

Trump may have managed to delude himself into believing a massive show of military force around Iran’s periphery would ensure he gets his way. He was probably hoping to score a foreign policy victory cheaply.

But since Iran has shown no signs of backing down, Trump will probably have to go through some motion of a military operation. He has been stung by criticism describing him as a TACO (for Trump Always Chickens Out). He cannot afford the consequences of dissembling the large fighting force he had already deployed.

In a word, Trump is probably captive to his own ignorant bravado. He made himself believe attacking the regime in Tehran might be as easy as that raid he conducted in Venezuela last month. But Iran is an entirely different case altogether.

Iran is a strategic ally for both Beijing and Moscow. Neither is about to allow the Americans to have their way. They learned from what happened in Venezuela that their inaction simply invites Trump to be more adventurous in bullying other nations.

Russia and China appear to have drawn the line in Iran. They will no longer watch passively as Trump pushes his way around. Drawing that line, however, might mean some form of military entanglement by the two other powers. They, too, are capable of issuing threats. A few days ago, Russia threatened to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine should the NATO nations decide to upgrade their weapons delivery to the besieged country.

Trump never bothered to consult Congress, much less seek legislative approval, whenever he deploys American military might outside US borders. Over the past few weeks, he has basically starved Cuba of oil imports – a move that will basically cause complete economic collapse in a few weeks. Traditionally, this is considered an act of war. But Trump has little patience for the nuances of statesmanship.

A little over a week ago, Trump gave himself his usual two weeks to come to a decision on Iran. He likely has come to a decision on his own and is simply trying to get his generals in line.

Should hostilities break out between the US and Iran, the whole world will be hostage to it. This is the reason most of America’s allies are a lot more cautious about waging war on the regional power.

The scenarios are familiar. We have run through them again and again as we rehearsed the possible fallout of a full-scale regional war.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a lot of the world’s oil flows, will likely be blocked by Iranian naval forces. The entire global economy will face an oil supply shock. Heaven knows how such a supply shock will reflect on prices.

To be sure, there will be civil strife within Iran. Such strife could eventually follow the multiple lines of ethnicity that compose the Iranian nation. This could draw neighboring states into that civil strife, much like what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein was overthrown.

To be sure, too, Turkey and the Arab nations will try to shape a different outcome for themselves.