That Pulse Asia survey

Devastating.

That is the impact of the March 2025 survey on the approval and trust ratings of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (BBM) conducted by pollster Pulse Asia.

Pulse Asia was founded in 1999 by political science professor Felipe Miranda. In 2009, it was disclosed Rafael Cojuangco and TonyBoy Cojuangco, blood relatives of the late president Corazon Cojuangco Aquino and Noynoy Aquino, were involved in establishing Pulse Asia in 1999.

So it is safe to say Pulse Asia has political origins. Coincidentally, midway into his presidency, March 2013, Noynoy was depicted by Pulse Asia to have an approval and trust ratings of 72 percent (wow!).

In the Pulse Asia survey of March 2025, BBM’s approval rating fell to a record low of 25 percent – down 23 percentage points or 48 percent from November 2024 Pulse Asia survey’s 48 percent approval, and down 43 percentage points or 63.23 percent from the December 2023 level of 68 percent, 16 months into his presidency.

In trust ratings, BBM’s fell to a new low of 25 percent in March 2025 – down 22 percentage points or 47 percent from November 2024’s 47 percent high trust, and down 48 percentage points or 66 percent from December 2023’s 73 percent.

In just four 0months, BBM lost his near majority approval (48 percent; 50 percent if you add the survey margin of error of plus or minus two percent) of his performance by the people. In 16 months, from December 2023, BBM lost two thirds of his approval. In trust rating,  the President lost three-fifths of the trust reposed in him by the people.

The overall impact, to me, it seems, is – Marcos Jr. has lost his mandate to govern. That is if you believe Pulse Asia’s research.

In surveys, the principle supposedly is that a small sample (like the 2,400 Pulse Asia respondents) can represent the entire universe or population (of 70 million adult Filipinos).

sJust like water. A spoonful of water taken from a tank of water is still water, H20 in scientific parlance. Well, no. It may be that the spoonful of water was taken from a polluted source, and then compared with water from the clean source. Like comparing potable water with dirty water.

That is why in analyzing surveys, it matters to know who is doing the survey, how the survey is conducted, who are being surveyed and when the survey was conducted. All these factors affect the results. In the US elections last year, all the major pollsters were wrong in claiming it was a close and unpredictable tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Well, Don Donald won with a huge mandate, both in popular votes and in all seven battleground states. So the rule in surveys is – careful, careful.

Pulse Asia conducted its latest survey during March 23 to 29 – 12 to 18 days after the stunning plane door-side arrest and deportation to The Hague of former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte.

The seeming outrage over Duterte’s arrest belies consistent surveys by respected pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS).

In four non-sponsored SWS surveys, the dominant opinion was approval of the ICC investigation (and by implication, trial).

Per SWS, the gross approval was between 49 and 59 percent, while gross disapproval was between 21 and 27 percent.

The one-fourth that disapprove are nevertheless enough to muster rallies supportive of RRD, here or abroad, wrote SWS head honcho Mahar Mangahas in his Inquirer column, March 15, 2025.

“The undecided dwindled from 31 percent initially to 13 percent later. By last June, the net approval was +33, which to me is a clear sign that what the Filipino people want most is justice,” wrote Mahar.

I took up two semesters of Statistics in my MBA class at Ateneo and one semester of Statistics in my elective class at the UST College of Arts and Letters, in addition to elective courses in banking (where statistics is de rigueur) and marketing (where statistics is used to analyze market demand and yes, surveys).

Clearly, the Pulse Asia March 23-29, 2025 survey was political in nature. It included a poll of senatorial preferences. And surprise of all surprises – four Duterte senatorial handpicks made it into the Magic 12 – Bong Go (No. 1), Bato dela Rosa (No. 3), actor Philip Salvador (11) and feisty legislator Rodante Marcoleta (12). In previous surveys, Salvador and Marcoleta were far far away from the win column, among 65 senatorial aspirants.

How is it possible that people, by robust numbers, per surveys, want Duterte tried by the International Criminal Court and then, at the same time, are outraged when such a process begins, and are outraged enough as to want four pro-Duterte candidates to win as senators, from only two, previously?

What is the lesson here for BBM?

As they say, cool lang. It is not the end of the world.

During her time, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had the lowest of presidential and trust ratings among all post-war presidents. She also faced no less than two coup attempts. Yet, she finished her presidency of nine years, the second longest, after Ferdinand Marcos’ 20 years.

Noynoy Aquino finished his six-year presidency with one of the highest approval and trust ratings for a sitting presidency. He died on June 24, 2021 at age 61, a lonely man, almost forgotten by his beloved people.

Meanwhile, in Pulse Asia’s survey, people want BBM to focus on these major problems, where he scored very disappointing disapproval ratings:

• Control inflation: 79 percent disapproval, 3 percent approval

• Fight graft and corruption: 53 percent disapproval, 13 percent approval

• Reduce poverty: 48 percent disapproval, 12 percent approval

• Increase workers’ pay: 48 percent disapproval, 16 percent approval

So Mr. President, the Cabinet – go back to the salt mines.

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