Amid the dark clouds, there is a silver lining

The recent typhoon that hit our country has once again brought to center stage the devastation and suffering our people have to endure due to climate change. But amid all the bad news, there is some good news coming out of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC that gathered an estimated 10,000 participants composed of global finance chiefs, leaders and policy makers as well as experts and members of civil society groups to discuss the most pressing issues and challenges for the global economy. 

Our embassy in Washington participated in the briefing conducted by the World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) Region, Aaditya Mattoo, that provided an update on the region’s economic situation.

EAP economies continue to outperform economies in the rest of the world, the briefing highlighted, with the region’s projected growth at 4.8 percent in 2024 but slowing down to 4.4 percent in 2025 because of the projected decline of growth in China from 4.8 percent this year to 4.3 percent in 2025. The World Bank projects a GDP growth forecast of 6.1 percent in 2025 from 6 percent in 2024 for the Philippines, up from 5.9 percent in its April 2024 forecast.

At a briefing conducted by IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, he said “there is geopolitical risk, with the potential for escalation of regional conflicts” that could affect commodity markets. “There is a rise of protectionism, protectionist policies, disruptions in trade that could also affect global activity.”

According to Gourinchas, global growth is expected to remain stable but underwhelming, with the growth projection virtually unchanged at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025 from the July 2024 World Economic Outlook Update and the April 2024 World Economic Outlook. Growth for the Philippines is projected to increase from 5.5 percent in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025. 

I hosted a lunch for members of the Philippine delegation headed by Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (Philippine Central Bank) Governor Eli Remolona and Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. 

During our conversation, they all agreed that the IMF-World Bank projections were clear indications that the outlook for the Philippine economy remains positive with an upward growth trajectory. The Philippines, in fact, is one of the fastest growing economies in the ASEAN+3 region (which includes China, Japan and South Korea) in 2024 and in 2025, according to ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) chief economist Hoe Ee Khor, with growth expected at 6.1 percent.

Our dollar reserves at the end of September, according to the BSP, are at an all-time high of $112 billion, with Secretary Recto expressing optimism that the economy would likely grow by 6 percent, more so now that inflation has been declining.

According to BSP governor Eli Remolona – who was recognized by the Global Finance magazine as one of the top-performing central bank governors globally – the Philippines is on track with its pursuit of an inclusive sustainability agenda, with initiatives to increase capital flows and green finance designed to benefit the most climate vulnerable segments that include the agriculture sector. 

The agriculture sector is definitely getting a special boost from the government and the timing couldn’t be more opportune because Rizome, a Florida-based bamboo company that partnered with a friend of mine whom I haven’t seen for a long time – former agriculture secretary Cito Lorenzo – received the Award for Corporate Excellence (ACE) for Climate Resilience from the US Department of State. With us during the awarding ceremony were US Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson and Rizome founder David Sands.

Rizome, whose flagship manufacturing plant in the Philippines is located in Cagayan de Oro, was awarded for pioneering the use of engineered bamboo dubbed as “miracle timber” with the use of innovative technology to produce eco-friendly and sustainable building materials that are “strong as steel” and “tough as concrete.” The giant bamboos are sourced from the Bukidnon farm of Cito that has greenhouses that can accommodate as many as 80,000 seedlings each, with over 3.5 million seedlings having been planted to date.

The economic policies and reforms that have been set in place are now being noticed globally especially in the US, and we are really at the top of our game right now with a lot of positive developments happening – contrary to the bleak picture some people are painting, obviously because it’s now “election season” even if the campaign period has yet to officially begin.

There is a lot of renewed interest in the Philippines among foreign investors, particularly from the US, which is definitely an offshoot of the foreign trips that the President has taken. But lest I sound biased because of my relationship with the President, here’s an opinion piece by Prof. Antonio Contreras titled,  “The audacity of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.” 

As things go now, PBBM may be proving his critics wrong, says Contreras, noting that even among critics in the academe, “Marcos appears to have surprised many with his declared support for scientific research and innovation.”

On criticisms about the President’s trips abroad, Contreras points out that “what we got in return were investment commitments, trade agreements and a lot of goodwill” – all of which contradict ridiculous claims that the Philippines is on the road to hell. 

There is absolutely no doubt our country is on the right track towards economic prosperity that can bring about economic security – which the President has repeatedly emphasized as central to his foreign policy. 

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