Beyond APEC: Summit meetings in Manila

The more controversial and interesting topics in this coming APEC Summit may not even be on the formal agenda; but, those that will be expected to be discussed in separate bilateral and multilateral meetings.

Reconciling TPP and RCEP

The APEC is an economic and trade forum that is supposed to encourage free trade in the Asia-Pacific region. There are two trade agreements that are emerging in the region that could cause a split in APEC and the ASEAN. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is composed of 12 countries led by the United States and Japan but excludes China. The Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (RCEP)  is undergoing negotiations principally between China and the ASEAN but excludes the United States.

The TPP calls for a more integrated approach and has provisions for free trade in goods and services, wider internet access, labor standards, dispute settlement mechanisms and patent protection. The RCEP is more limited focusing primarily on free trade of goods.

During the APEC meeting the heads of the 12 TPP nations will have a separate meeting. These are Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam ,Japan,  Canada, United States, Mexico, Peru and Chile. The Philippines has declared that it intends to join the TPP. However, since it is not yet one of the original members, the Philippines will not be part of the meeting.

The APEC is the only forum where a way could be found to allow the two trade pacts to co-exist.

Shifting from Deng to Xi

The other issue that will certainly be discussed will be the increased tension in the West Philippine Sea. This is the result of territorial disputes between China and other ASEAN nations. The tension has been exacerbated by China’s building of militarized artificial islands in the region.

 China’s foreign policy in the West Philippine Sea has drastically changed over the past three decades. During the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping described China’s approach to the territorial disputes : “Sovereignty is ours; defer disputes; engage in joint development.”

Deng’s emphasis was on economic development and his policy was to “defer disputes; engage in joint development.” He suggested that the issues of territorial sovereignty could be postponed for another time. China would be open to joint development of natural resources.

The focus on economic development begun to change under Hu Jintao. Under Xi Jinping, the primary objective is now on the first clause: “Sovereignty is ours...” It is important to understand that China’s claim of “historical’ sovereignty is not limited to this maritime area; but, includes Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang.

In all these four areas, China is also facing resistance. In Taiwan, a pro-independence party is poised to win the presidency in the coming election this January. In Hong Kong, the “yellow umbrella” movement continues to demand for greater autonomy and democracy. In Tibet, the native population, under the leadership of the Dalai Lama, has continued to wage a campaign of resistance to the Chinese invasion of their homeland. Xinjiang is a predominantly Muslim region and China’s religious persecution raises the spectre of a jihadist insurrection.

In the South China Sea, China’s claim has been challenged by five nations – Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Taiwan. Recently another country – Indonesia – has also publicly declared its intention to challenge China’s claim to sovereignty.

US response

There are several reports that there has been serious differences of opinion  between the US Defense and State Departments, on how to address the increasing threat of  China.

Last June US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned China that the United States would not respect demands that American ships stay at least 12 nautical miles from the disputed artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea.

However, it was only after five months that the White House finally approved a naval exercise that was meant to uphold its demand for “freedom of navigation.” According to a Pentagon report in a recent forum, the White House placed several restrictions on the mission to minimize the risk of confrontation with Beijing.

The Obama administration has been very reluctant to use military force even when dealing with Putin, Xi or ISIS. In a recent forum, Secretary Carter’s Deputy Bob Work said “We have two great powers [Russia and China]. This is totally different, something that we haven’t had to deal with in the last 25 years. The primary thing we’ve done in the last 12 months is to organize ourselves for combat and to actually think about this problem.”

 There have been recent signs that the Obama administration may now be taking a more aggressive role in dealing with China. Perhaps, the Pentagon’s voice is now being heeded by the White House. Susan Rice, US National Security Adviser has just announced that China’s claims in the South China Sea “...will be a central issue at the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN-US Summit in Kuala Lumpur and the other engagements that we have throughout our visit in Asia.”

This clearly means that while the South China Sea disputes are not on formal agenda of the APEC Summit here in Manila, it will be a major topic during the many different bilateral meetings that will be held between different heads of states. It might even be a principal topic when Obama and Xi hold a  meeting.

The focus of world attention wil not just be on the APEC formal agenda but also on the different summit meetings because of the different critical geopolitical issues that will be discussed. The private meetings between the heads of state coming to Manila may be the beginning – for better or for worse – of a new world order.

Adult Writing Class Series continues

The Personal Essay with Paulynn Paredes Sicam on Nov. 21, 2015 (1:30-5:30 pm) at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street. Paulynn Paredes Sicam is a journalist and editor. She writes a weekly column for the Philippine STAR. For registration and fee details contact 0917-6240196/ [email protected].

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