Nobody blinked, so far
I am saddened to report the passing of Juanito V. Jabat, a veteran Cebu journalist who belonged to the glorious era when a byline had to be earned and who, literally, lived and died by the typewriter. Up to the last time he wrote his popular column "Have Bat Will Strike," he still pounded the puns and jokes out of his battered typewriter. He was 83 at the time of his death and was publisher of Banat, sister paper of The Freeman, of which he used to be the editor and publisher.
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So, did China blink? In an earlier column, I asked -- without providing any answer, of course -- who would blink between the United States and China over their sabre-rattling in the South China Sea. But while I did not provide any answers as it is beyond my capability to do so, I did hint broadly that it might be the United States that will blink.
The reason why I hinted broadly that it is the US that will blink is because, on the issue of the South China Sea, it has largely confined itself to issuing tough rhetoric, with almost absolutely no beef to prove even a point. On the other hand, when China claimed the whole of the South China Sea, it backed up its claim by building a virtual garrison in the area.
Sure, the US at one time had a military plane buzz the area with a gang of journalists on board, thereby ensuring reluctance on the part of China to react and respond other than to issue loud but ineffective warnings for the US military plane to leave the area. The presence of journalists made sure the question will forever remain unanswered -- how China would have reacted and responded if there had been no journalists on board the US military plane.
China did attempt a belated answer by sending its own military ships close enough to Alaska to see the eyeballs of President Obama who was at the time visiting the state. The Chinese answer seems to be -- if you can buzz over us, we can also nudge your side. And so the brinkmanship continues. As to exactly how long before one of the other makes a miscalculation, nobody knows.
What is certain is that, of late, American policy in dealing with its two largest rivals, China and Russia, seems to deal largely with rhetoric. The US slammed Russia over Ukraine and slammed it again over Syria. But at the end of the day, Crimea is back with Russia, and Russian-backed rebels hold the underbelly of Ukraine. A Russian missile was found to have downed a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine but everybody, including the US, has stopped short of blaming Russia.
In the South China Sea, the US has been very verbally aggressive about backing long-time friend and ally the Philippines in its own claims to portions of the South China Sea. But while the Philippines and other claimants protest, China is taking direct action and has created artificial islands and fortified existing ones in the area. And except for the verbiage, nobody has taken direct action, save for that overfly caper with journalists.
Suddenly, a few weeks ago, a US Navy magazine reported that the US was close to giving the go signal for US military ships not just to sail through the South China Sea but to actually siddle up close to see what Chinese are up to in their newly-reclaimed islands. On hearing the report, China expectedly blew a fuse. Go ahead and make my day, it said, virtually.
This was the situation upon which I based my question as to who would blink between the US and China. My feeling then was that, if the US had been really up to it, had truly wanted to take the calculated risk of testing for China's reaction, it should just have gone and done it instead of telegraphing its punches and telling China what it was about to do, as if begging for a sign that would make such an incursion virtually untenable and spare everyone the tenterhooks.
Surprisingly, though, shortly after China told the US to "go ahead and make my day" it followed this up with a disclaimer of sorts, saying it will avoid using force in the area. But what the Chinese central military commission vice chairman actually said is revealing. Here is what he said: China ... "will never recklessly resort to the use of force, even on issues bearing on sovereignty." It did not rule out the use of force, only the reckless resort to it. And that is not a blink.
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