Aquino and Xi shake hands

Philippine President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time and shook hands last November 21 in Beijing. It was a historic occasion because the two countries had been locked in territorial disputes over islands and reefs in the West Philippine Sea ( South China Sea) for the past few years.

The occasion was the 22nd summit meeting of 21 heads of countries which composes the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC. This year’s meeting was hosted by China and held in Beijing. Next year’s meeting will be hosted by the Philippines  in Iloilo City at the Iloilo Convention Center which is supposed to be finished by April next year.  

Although the meeting between Aquino and Xi lasted only about ten minutes, there has been immense interest on the possible effects of this diplomatic first on future Philippine-China relations. Was this a signal that there could be lessening of tensions between the two countries or was it simply a photo opportunity by a polite host greeting a visitor?

Chito Sta. Romana, the acknowledged Philippine expert on China affairs, is also now gaining international recognition for his knowledge regarding China affairs. Aside from numerous groups and forums he has addressed in the Philippines, he has recently been invited to speak about China and the tensions in the West Philippine Seas, in Vietnam, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Milan.  

He is the current president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies. He is the former Beijing bureau chief of the American Broadcasting (ABC) News of the United States and he covered China for ABC from 1989 to 2010. He is a graduate of De La Salle University-Manila and the Fletcher School fof Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Massachusetts. He reads, writes and speaks perfect Mandarin.

I asked him for his thoughts on the meeting between Aquino and Xi. This is his reply to me:

“The meeting between Aquino and Xi signalled a potential breakthrough in the strained relations between the two countries. It was the first direct encounter between the two leaders after the deterioration in bilateral ties resulting from the standoff at Scarborough Shoals. Though the Aquino-Xi encounter during the tree planting ceremony at the APEC summit meeting lasted only ten minute, it broke the diplomatic impasse and marked a possible turning point in bilateral relations.

At the very least, it could lead to a lowering of tensions, an improvement in the political atmosphere and a resurgence of higher-level dialogue especially since there will be more diplomatic opportunities next year when Aquino plays host to Xi and other leaders at the APEC Summit in the Philippines.

But there should be no illusion that territorial and maritime disputes can be resolved overnight. The path to a resolution will remain a challenging one and will call for a high degree of statesmanship on both sides combined with a spirit of pragmatism and compromise. Nevertheless, the “meeting of minds” in Beijing was an important first step in rebuilding bilateral ties.

The challenge to both sides is to manage the disputes and ease tensions over them while promoting mutually beneficial ties in trade, tourism, investments and other areas of possible cooperation. In other words, it depends on the willingness of both sides to compartmentalize the disputes and prevent them from affecting normal diplomatic and business ties between the two countries.

The recent trend in Chinese diplomacy represents a shift towards the greater use of soft power and the leveraging of its economic resources by means of setting up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with its initial capital of $50 billion and the $40 Billion for the” Maritime Silk Road.” This constitutes both a political challenge and an economic opportunity for the Philippines and other neighboring countries that deserves careful study and consideration.

Aquino is confronted with the issue of sustaining the momentum of the initial meeting and taking advantage of opportunities that can promote the country’s strategic interests while pursuing the arbitration case to the conclusion. What happens in the next year or so will shape the future direction of Philippine China relations and form an important element of Aquino’s legacy.”

US-China strategic rivalry in Asia

The territorial disputes with China is not limited to the Philippines but also between China and several countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei, Taiwan, India and Japan. Aside from these territorial disputes, a primary element in the regional security situation in Asia is the growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China especially after the proclamation of the new US policy of a “pivot to Asia” and the economic rise of China.

The emerging focus of this rivalry is the waters between Chinese mainland and its immediate neighbors in the East China Sea and the West Philippine Sea. The prospect of a military confrontation of some kind seems inevitable. But will there be an outright war?  Some analysts like Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics seem to believe war is inevitable as the dominant power — United States — will not simply accept the rise of a new power or willingly yield its supremacy. At the same time the rising power China will not give up its ambition to become a superpower even in the face of opposition from a dominant power. In fact Xi Jinping has publicly spoken of the “China Dream” — the goal to achieve a Chinese renaissance so that China can regain its preeminent position in Asia.

Chito Sta. Romana, however, has said: “Other analysts from the liberal school think increasing economic interdependence together with strategic dialogues and high level diplomacy will be able to promote understanding and cooperation, lessen tensions and prevent the outbreak of war.”

Sta. Romana explained: “The emerging strategic rivalry between the US and China is the clash of two regional powers and their vision of the regional order — preserving a US-led Pax Americana, which is the current situation in Asia, versus attaining a Pax Sinica, a Sino centric vision of a region economically integrated with China and under its leadership.”

   Pax Asiana; The third alternative

Is there a third and more ideal alternative for countries like the Philippines in Asia? Chito Sta. Romana offers one: “....there is also the prospect of an emergence of a multipolar (vs. bipolar) vision in which ASEAN seeks a major role in the merging regional order while other countries such as Japan, India, South Korea and Australia also seek to play a bigger role.

The possible emergence of a multipolar order in Asia indicates another alternative — a Pax Asiana in which there is a “concert of powers” and where small and medium sized countries can play a more significant role, together with a greater role for civil society and people’s movements to influence governments and societies throughout the region.”

Perhaps, this is where the Philippines can play a leadership goal and where President Aquino can leave a lasting legacy of peace in the region — the realization of a Pax Asiana.

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