Intertwined

No matter the present inconveniences, the Philippines’ destiny intertwines with China’s.

Geography, it was said, determined the fate of nations. Recall the complaint of a Mexican leader decades ago: “Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States!”

Today, the webs of commerce might overrule geography. On that aspect, too, we are more tightly bound to China’s economy by the day. Bilateral trade is visible enough; but most decisive are the networks of investment flows.

The inconveniences, to be sure, are many.

It so happens we have a standing territorial dispute with China in the sea we share. China invokes historical right in its claim over the Spratleys. We reinforce our claim by invoking, above sheer proximity, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). By international law, China is at a disadvantage; but she compensates for that by forcefully occupying the contested islands.

Against such occupation, our puny naval force is helpless. We are now trying to level the field by heavily investing in expensive, albeit ancient, warships. It is probably a futile investment: the islands China wants they have already occupied and fortified. They do not need to overrun the islands occupied by our hardy but under-equipped Marines. All they need to do is draw the territorial boundaries from the islands they control to the mainland that is indisputably theirs. That carves out an immense quantity of sea and the untold riches underneath.

Beijing’s real strategic concern here is not the Philippines. Their real concern is the tough Vietnamese, whose commandos invaded and occupied islands right smack in the marine boundaries Beijing wants to secure. Remember the Vietnamese once bloodied the nose of the proud PLA when Beijing once tried to punish its southern neighbor by sending an expeditionary force across the border.

 The Philippines, in Beijing’s mind, will sooner or later compromise to some joint exploitation arrangement. The Vietnamese are tough cookies. Vietnam is nursing an economic growth rate that could soon match China’s. The Philippines does not have the political regime to even remotely match that.

The other inconvenience is a marked difference between us on matters of political orthodoxy.

China, which is really the remnant of an old empire subduing a large range of ethnicities, embraces capitalism while maintaining a Leninist regime. The Philippines preaches democracy even as we have left an oligarchy largely intact.

 The variance in political orthodoxy should hardly be a hindrance to a closer economic alliance.

Beijing is reassured the Philippines has done very little democratic flag-waving lately. We accommodated Burma’s entry into the Asean community notwithstanding its grotesque dictatorship. We conveniently brush the moral inconvenience under the rug of “non-interference in internal affairs.”

We always do what is convenient. Before East Timor finally won nationhood, we banned her leaders entry to the country to avoid displeasing Jakarta. We never officially comment on the human rights situation in China. In fact, last year, we joined the Beijing-orchestrated boycott of the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony where a leading Chinese democracy activist was awarded the coveted medal.

Beijing’s rise to economic dominance is driven by sheer pragmatism on matters of economic affairs. Our middling economic performance is driven by sheer pragmatism on matters of political affairs.

Therefore, we will never really be a thorn on China’s side like Japan and Vietnam are. We can always be relied upon to evaluate things strictly through the prism of commerce. It is understandable the President brings with him to Beijing the largest business delegation ever to escort a Filipino president on a state visit.

Beijing perfectly understands how our politicians are prone to uttering bombastic nonsense for domestic consumption before finally yielding in the quiet of backroom diplomacy. They expressed no discomfort, for instance, over President Aquino’s curious utterance about “Recto Bank” and Recto Avenue during the last SONA.

“Recto Bank” in the “West Philippine Sea” is, after all, inadequate to host a PLA forward basing facility. The PLA already has what it needs — along with an aircraft carrier to back up existing bases should they come under threat from our mighty navy.

In a decade, maybe sooner, China will eclipse the US as the world’s largest economy. That will be the fruit of economic policies that are fast and loose, alongside political policies that are brutal and unrelenting.

By contrast, in a decade, half our people will still be poor. That will be the result of economic policies that are restrictive as much as they are shortsighted, alongside a politics that is a constant carnival, entertaining our people with bombastic nonsense.

In a decade, maybe sooner, Greater China will be the center of gravity of the global economy. We will want, at whatever cost, to be part of that co-prosperity sphere. Pragmatism dictates it. Short-term interest warrants it.

We do not have much of a choice. The only other alternative is to build economic alliances with the Pacific island economies of Nauru, Tonga and Fiji — all threatened with submersion by global warming.

China needs out minerals; we need her investments. We can sell junk food to that immense market and offer warm beaches in winter for China’s 80 million-strong middle class. Geography and commerce holds us in this inconvenient embrace.

 Maybe we can be more than just victims of the Pacific Century — if we can outwit the empire.