An unfinished People Power mission in Egypt

In last Saturday’s CNN interview with Paul Wolfowitz, former World Bank President and US President George W. Bush Deputy Defense Secretary, the limits of People Power as a means for political change was discussed.

Interviewed by CNN after Egypt President Hosni Mubarak had stepped down and handed over power to the Supreme Military Council, Wolfowitz stated that People Power can be thwarted by brutal repression — as seen in the 1989 quashing of the People Power uprising in Tiananmen Square in China.

The successes of the 2011 Egypt and the 1986 Philippine People Power political upheavals can be credited to a largely sympathetic military organization in both countries and also the wisdom of the deposed dictators, Presidents Hosni Mubarak and Ferdinand Marcos, not to tempt the fates. Both the Egyptian military of 2011 and the Philippine military of 1986 did not suppress People Power.

No doubt, the decisive stance taken by the US in the Egypt and Philippine People Power upheavals of 2011 and 1986, respectively, contributed to the relatively peaceful resolution of the political crisis in both countries. From the Battle of Manila Bay to the present, the US continues to influence Philippine political and economic affairs. In Egypt, Mubarak lasted for 30 years because of the support of the US and Israel.

In fact, during the Egyptian crisis, many international resource persons known for their unflinching support for Israel had expressed deep concerns if Mubarak was ousted. An Egypt under a democratic Egyptian government could be less friendly to Israel and the US. The Israeli fear has basis. During the recent Egyptian crisis, many of the protesters were denouncing US support for Mubarak — quantified at US$1.3 billion a year.

The saving grace of the recent Egypt experience with People Power is that like the 1986 Philippine model — the moderates and the middle class were in charge. You did not see the usual rabid Jihad promoters shouting “Down with the US and down with Israel” with a bomb strapped around the waist. However, for the Israelis and the Right wingers in US officialdom, the lesson of the Iran experience following the fall of the Shah haunts with the fear that radical elements could end up controlling the new configuration of power.

In the case of the Philippine 1986 experience with People Power, the transition was more predictable because the then Opposition united under the leadership of the late beloved president Cory C. Aquino. The people clamoring for a political overhaul in Egypt did not have the equivalent of a Cory C. Aquino and this is what adds to the fears of the US and its Middle East protectorate, Israel.

It was evident from the way the US was reacting to the Egyptian crisis that the President Barrack Obama administration was playing things by ear as the situation was developing on the ground in Egypt. Several of the CNN and BBC top Middle East analysts were of the opinion that Mubarak sealed his fate by responding with too little, too late. They felt that had Mubarak conceded during the first three days of the 18-day uprising what he offered the people during its last three days — then he might have negotiated a transition via the September elections where he, or his Vice President, Omar Suleiman, could still be at the helm. Now, both Mubarak and Suleiman have been replaced by the Supreme Military Council.

To the credit of President Obama, perhaps wiser from lessons of past US mistakes in sleeping with autocrats, the US immediately expressed support for the right of the Egyptian people to assemble and express their demands for a democratic government. The US and its allies will now play a crucial role in ensuring that the Egyptian military will strictly perform the role of a transition team, ensuring a truly democratic process that will determine the future of Egypt.

Former CIA Director and Middle East expert Robert Baer believes that the new situation in Egypt could be a craftily presented military coup that took over from Mubarak. Baer believed that the situation may not be what the Egyptian people think - that what had transpired was a mere transfer of absolute power from Mubarak to the military.

The US and its allies must ensure that Egypt does not evolve into another Myanmar which continues to languish under a military regime. The US annual $1.3 billion aid to Egypt provides the Egyptian Supreme Military Council 1.3 billion compelling reasons to faithfully effect the transition to democracy. There is no way that the people who risked all to oust Mubarak will just sit around and allow a military regime to take over. That will be courting civil war and the entire region could erupt if that ever happens.

President Obama may come under heavy pressure from the powerful Jewish lobby to support a “sugar-coated” autocratic regime in Egypt. During the Egypt People Power crisis, the hard line pro-Israel resource persons placed a heavy emphasis on securing the harmony between Israel and Egypt, discouraging support for the unknown Opposition. In effect, they’re saying: “never mind if Egypt is ruled by a son-of-a-bitch if he’s our son-of-a-bitch.”

*      *      *

Chair Wrecker e-mail and website: [email protected]and www.chairwrecker.com