Juan on Juan

CNN meteorologist Ivan Cabrera hailed it as the strongest storm to wreak havoc in the Pacific Ocean since 1990, and to hit the planet since 2005. But tornadic Juan (codenamed Megi) was no match against vigilant Juan. Before the cyclone could rage, a calm and united Team Philippines was determined to curb its onslaught to life and property. Contrary to general expectations, the well-coordinated and prepared RP team outsmarted Nature’s wrath.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC, the former NDCC) have redeemed themselves. They proved that in the face of real adversity, they could work side by side to foil a common foe. Together they displayed a fleet-footedness never before witnessed in the hurricane annals of our country. This was also the most heartening demonstration of leadership thus far by our 123-day-old President.

Before the “Noysayers” attempt to diminish the understated but firm crisis command shown by P-Noy, or underplay Juan as a tempest in a teapot — ponder the odds, the response, and the aftermath of super cyclone Juan versus typhoon Ondoy last September 25, 2009.

Ondoy (codenamed Ketsana) was one of the most devastating super-storms to strike Manila. It was the 27th Pacific tropical cyclone and the eighth to hit the country. There were 747 fatalities and damage to property was at $1.2B. It was on the radar a full 48 hours before landing on our shores. The Japan Meteorological Agency first spotted it as a depression that was downgraded to a low-pressure area. Then it intensified into a tropical storm with maximum winds of 85kph near the center and gusts of up to 100kph. There was ample time to prepare against its fury that was nowhere near the Juan howler. Yet the Arroyo administration and NDCC under Gilbert Teodoro were caught flatfooted with a measly 13 rubber boats for rescue!

Ondoy horror stories were many. Distress calls and queries from distraught relatives and friends inundated TV and radio stations. Thousands were stranded on the expressways. Power, communications and water services ground to a halt. NAIA shut down. The metropolis recorded more than 6 to 10 feet of floodwater.

Marikina, the river city was one of the worst hit. At the height of the flood, around 100,000 liters of bunker oil from Noah’s Paper Mill spilled out. The slick thrashed the entire city and complicated rescue efforts further. To make matters worse, the NAPOCOR Flood Forecasting and Warning System had to release 500 cubic meters of stored water from the Angat Dam in the following two days. It had accumulated water to dangerous levels.

To compensate for un-readiness, wannabe Strongwoman ex-PGMA immediately seized the opportunity to declare a “state of calamity” in Luzon. Following her lead, Gilbert Teodoro also declared an over-all state of calamity in Metro Manila and 25 other provinces. A lot of photos were shot.

Local officials were allowed to utilize emergency funds for relief and rescue. Despite the bravery of Army troops, police and civilian volunteers who were deployed for rescue, poignant tales of heroes who traded their own lives for others filled the newspapers.

In stark contrast, Juan, the 10th storm to enter the Philippine area of responsibility, was intimidating. When it finally landed, it registered the highest recorded maximum sustained winds of 225kph, with a gustiness of 260kph. Cagayan province was mercilessly pounded. Residents, who are veterans of calamities, observed that Juan’s strength surpassed all previous storms. NDRRMC counted 17 people dead and about P68M in infrastructure damage.

P-Noy was very pleased with the minimal losses of Juan’s aftermath. Though he wished for zero casualties, he declared, “I am very happy to report to the public that everyone has delivered. The thorough preparations of all concerned agencies are in marked contrast to the official helplessness of the past, and at present, we haven’t had to ask the public to contribute outside resources.”

Led by Science Secretary Mario Montejo and Undersecretary Graciano Yumul, PAGASA was lauded for its accurate and hourly weather forecasts that allowed other agencies to prepare for Juan.

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, DSWD Secretary Dinky Soliman, and NDRRMC executive director Benito Ramos were also commended “for their effective management of their respective mandates.”

As of this writing, PAGASA has discovered a brewing new storm. Whether it will become another rematch against Nature’s forces remains to be seen. Hopefully, the government agencies involved in taming climate tantrums will consistently rise to the challenge.

The intensity and frequency of cyclones are just omens of the looming threat that the world faces: Climate Change. Defined as a “long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years, it may be a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth”.

As scientists and politicians debate and grandstand on the issue, the pleas of a planet begging for renewal have become extremely urgent. The US Environmental Protection Agency has posted the facts of climate change: Glaciers around the world are shrinking, and the amount of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has decreased since the 1970s; Average sea level worldwide is projected to rise up to two feet by the end of the century, eliminating approximately 10,000 square miles of land in the US. Hurricanes in the Atlantic are likely to become more intense as ocean temperatures rise; as this happens, some migratory birds are spending the winter an average of 35 miles farther north than they did 40 years ago.

Clearly, sustained and draconian interventions are radically needed. But for today, we can savor the good feeling that the worst of Juan brought out the best in Juan. Now if only we can find a better name for NDRRMC.

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