Who do we trust: Surveys or the Comelec?

A close family friend and supporter of Noynoy Aquino victoriously proclaimed during a small gathering, “Game ovah!” This was in reference to the latest Pulse Asia survey showing Noynoy still in the lead with Manny Villar and Joseph Estrada now tied at second place. Most of the Liberal Party supporters now believe that their candidate is the winner. Obviously this is a very dangerous situation because if the Comelec results come out differently, then - “Houston… we have a problem.” Or more accurately, “Washington, we have a problem.”

Like what Dick Gordon has repeatedly said, surveys can be misleading and can condition the minds of the people. Which brings us to the question: How accurate are surveys, and how all encompassing are the results? After all, can 1,800 people represent what the 50 million voters will decide on May 10 itself?

Interestingly, even survey firm executives admit that surveys “do not necessarily determine the outcome of the presidential elections... It is bound to change on or before May 10 for a number of reasons,” said Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes. During a dinner hosted by US Embassy Public Affairs Counselor Rick Nelson for the new US Ambassador Harry Thomas, Mahar Mangahas of the Social Weather Stations was present and explained to us that surveys “hardly affect votes.” What they will affect are donations, with people more likely to give to perceived winners several weeks before the elections. Even Liberal Party campaign manager Butch Abad agrees — surveys influence campaign donors, not voters.

In the past, surveys have also been proven wrong, like in the case of the 1948 US elections where polls taken by Gallup, Roper and Crosley showed Thomas Dewey trumping Harry Truman - so much so that Chicago Tribune incorrectly bannered “Dewey defeats Truman” on its Nov. 3, 1948 headline. The result turned out to be the exact opposite. In the United Kingdom, the Conservatives defied the prediction of most polling firms when, contrary to expectations, it won over the Labour Party during the 1992 elections, with the victory attributed to the soapbox-style campaigning of Tory leader John Major.

In the Philippines, the same thing happened to FVR who emerged the winner during the 1992 presidential elections despite trailing in pre-election surveys. This same come-from-behind victory is what Gilbert Teodoro supporters are hoping for, heartened by the advice of FVR himself that if the Lakas-Kampi candidate stays focused on his campaign and is not sidetracked by surveys, Teodoro has a big chance of winning. Of course, FVR is one who has been there, done that — although to this day, Miriam Santiago continues to dispute the results and claims she was cheated.

And how does one also reconcile the fact that other reputable polling firms — such as the Campaigns and Images Group (used by British and US-based companies doing business in the Philippines to better understand Filipino thought and sentiments) — have totally different results than SWS or Pulse Asia surveys? In its latest April 19-23 survey, C&IG shows Gilbert Teodoro leading across different age brackets and in varied sectors.

If there is a possibility of a conflict between the results of different survey firms, then one cannot also discount the possibility of the actual Comelec results differing from that which has been projected by opinion polls, as shown in the examples of Harry Truman, John Major and the Tories and FVR. As pointed out by many, opinion polls are not infallible and do not automatically translate into votes. In 30 countries, survey results cannot be published several weeks before the elections to prevent trending and the so-called bandwagon effect.

One thing should be made clear: Surveys do not decide elections. At best, they serve as guidelines and do not take into account so many other factors such as command votes, party machinery, swing votes from the silent majority and even such things as vote buying on election day itself. Otherwise, why hold costly elections at all if surveys can unerringly predict the outcome of an exhaustive political exercise? Indeed, it would take a lot of faith for one to believe that the opinion of 2,000 or so people (some of whom may not even be registered voters) actually and accurately represents the will of the rest of the Filipino voting population.

Unfortunately, the credibility of the Comelec has been eroding over the years, with allegations of bribery, vote rigging and result manipulation to favor certain candidates. Which is why the government agency should make sure that the coming elections are perceived to be honest and credible. But as Noynoy supporter Teddyboy Locsin said, automation will make it difficult for anyone to cheat, since they will have to convince Locsin, Chiz Escudero and Comelec Chair Jose Melo to disclose individual passwords to access the “source code,” the program that would run the PCOS machines. Which makes a parallel manual count unnecessary, he added.

The multiparty system in this county has done more harm than anything else. For almost two decades now, we have always had a minority president with less than 50 percent voting for him, fueling the division among Filipinos. That’s why a run-off election is really the best solution to all of these, which the next president should think about because as we all know - in this country - nobody ever loses; everybody always wins. But definitely, we have to do something about surveys because in the end - the only survey that counts is the Comelec count.

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