Conflagration

We are all sitting on the edge of our seats. The manner Israel responds to the massive missile attack launched by Iran will define the scope and severity of this crisis.

We are not looking at a set of dominos waiting to fall. Rather, we are watching a firecracker belt going off after being lit. There is inevitability in the consequences.

Earlier this week, Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel. The barrage no longer included the slow drones Iran launched the first time that took 12 hours to reach Israel’s borders and were easily shot down. The last attack included hypersonic missiles, some of which appeared to have penetrated Israel’s much vaunted Iron Dome air defense system.

Iran’s attack was audacious, considering the country had hardly anything that might be called an air force. This attack was apparently delayed until Russia had delivered state-of-the-art air defense systems to their allies in Tehran.

This attack happened as Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were mounting a ground operation in southern Lebanon. Earlier in the week, Israel’s air force bombed Houthi military bases in Yemen along with a Russian military base in Syria suspected of being a transit point for arms deliveries to the Hezbollah.

Things have not been going well for Iran’s proxies in the region. The IDF is still hunting down remnant units of Hamas in Gaza. Exploding pagers and walkie-talkies killed or injured hundreds of Hezbollah partisans in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s long-time leader was killed by a precise air strike in Beirut. Intensive bombing devastated Hezbollah installations close to Israel’s northern border.

Russia is deeply invested in this regional conflict. Sophisticated Russian armaments have been found in Hezbollah bunkers. Russia troops have been deployed to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria. Russian arms are now finding their way to the Houthis in Yemen. As the regional conflict escalates, Iran will be more dependent on Russian supplies.

A number of Western analysts suggest this is the best time for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tehran’s use of sophisticated ballistic missiles raises the risks for Israel. These missiles could eventually be armed with nuclear devices. Iran is ruled by a radical theocracy with the avowed goal of wiping Israel from the face of the earth.

The Biden administration has warned Tel Aviv against attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. This is consistent with Joe Biden’s extremely cautious approach to raging conflicts. Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities could draw Russian involvement in this most volatile region. But for Israel, destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons capability has tremendous strategic advantages.

For most of the world, the leading concern is the regional conflict’s impact on global oil supplies. Iranian oil production accounts for two percent of global supply. But 90 percent of that oil processing is concentrated in Kharg Island, close to the border with Iraq. It will certainly be tempting for IDF military planners to cripple this facility, even as it will result in shutting down Iranian oil exports.

Iran’s citizens understand the vulnerability of Kahrg Island. The moment Iranian missiles landed in Israel, ordinary Iranians queued up in gas stations to fill up their tanks.

Furthermore, Iran’s fleet of swift patrol boats could strangle the Strait of Hormuz. A large portion of global oil supplies from the Arabian peninsula and Iraq passes through this narrow waterway.

Or else, Tehran could encourage their Houthi allies to attack Saudi oil processing facilities, as they have done before. This will take out an even larger portion of global oil supply.

Damage to their oil processing facilities would inflict incalculable harm on Saudi Arabia’s economy, which is almost entirely dependent on oil exports. This might explain why Riyadh, along with its neighboring oil exporters, declared they will not interfere with Iranian missiles crossing their airspace towards Israel.

To be sure, there are frantic diplomatic efforts involving many countries to get the situation to pipe down. But Israel is not about to let an attack on its land go unpunished. It needs to penalize Iran for this attack.

The rest of the world is simply hoping any further hostilities in this oil-rich region will not result in the depletion of available oil supplies. Reflecting the anxiety, oil prices began rising after the Iranian missile attack despite ample supplies in storage.

In the most severe scenario, industry analysts warn oil prices could rise to over $100 per barrel. Recall that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices spiked to as high as $130 per barrel before it moderated on the realization that overall global supply will not be unduly harmed. A massive spike in oil prices could push major economies into recession. Global economic expansion will certainly be restrained.

The world easily starves when oil supplies are disrupted. Unfortunately, so much of the world’s oil supply comes from its most volatile region.

It will be an exaggeration to say that World War III has become imminent. But it is certainly true that the major powers bear great responsibility for encouraging restraint among the warring forces in the Middle East.

Even if we are entirely dependent on oil imports, the Philippines has only a small voice in international affairs. If the current conflagration in the Middle East grows any more serious, our economy and our wellbeing will certainly be harmed.

We can only sit on the edge awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack.