EDITORIAL - Reminder of the Big One

A university suspended classes, a Senate hearing was cut short while several offices were evacuated when a magnitude 4.6 earthquake rocked Metro Manila at past noon yesterday, with its epicenter traced in Nakar, Quezon province.

The quake was felt mostly at Intensity 4 in the National Capital Region, which was mild considering the powerful earthquakes that have hit the NCR in the past. But it was the latest reminder of the need for heightened preparedness amid repeated warnings from seismologists that the country’s most densely populated region and center of economic activity is ripe for the so-called Big One.

Warnings about the Big One – a quake with a magnitude of at least 7.2 – have been issued for about two decades now, so much so that seismologists are starting to be regarded as the boy who cried wolf.

The warnings are based on studies conducted by state seismologists together with the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority and experts from Japan, a country that has been grappling with killer earthquakes and tsunamis for centuries.

The experts warn that the West Valley Fault, which runs through much of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, is ripe for a major movement after about 600 years. There are detailed maps of the West Valley Fault, which runs through several highly developed enclaves in the NCR.

Science has not provided an accurate method of predicting when an earthquake will strike. But with the detailed maps and warnings of what could happen, it is possible to prepare sufficiently to minimize the damage.

Based on the studies, from 30,000 to 50,000 people can die and thousands more displaced if the Big One strikes with the NCR ill prepared for it. Collapsing buildings, fires and serious disruptions of supplies, transportation and utilities including water, power and telecommunications are among the dire consequences predicted. Hospitals are bound to be overwhelmed.

Since the warnings were first issued, property developers have installed earthquake mitigation interventions in buildings while public works infrastructure have been reinforced. But there are still too many buildings and structures that remain vulnerable.

Earthquake drills are also conducted regularly in schools and offices while rescue equipment and capabilities have been upgraded. But there remains a wide room for improvement in preparedness. Yesterday’s quake, while mild, is a reminder that for the Big One, it’s never too early to prepare for the worst.