Perception and reality

Poll surveys to feel the people’s pulse both here and abroad are said to be scientifically done and therefore considered reliable and accurate. So far, previous survey results in this country especially with respect to the outcome of elections seem to confirm this claim, give or take a few percentage points for errors. SWS and Pulse Asia are the two major survey firms reputedly the most credible and reliable outfits conducting such surveys. Their reports are invariably used or cited to justify the adoption of some measures, to deflect criticisms or to belie some charges. In elections, candidates used them to gauge their chances at the polls and to design winning strategies.

As usual however in this country, the accuracy, intrinsic worth and value of poll surveys entirely depend on whether it is favorable or unfavorable to the person/s or groups involved or affected. The results of surveys favorable to certain person/s or groups are always true, correct and reliable as far as they are concerned whereas those unfavorable to them are absolutely wrong, entirely baseless or manifestly biased.

In the last elections for example, periodic surveys of the possible poll results by both the SWS and Pulse Asia had repeatedly shown a landslide opposition victory in the senatorial elections. But administration candidates kept on sneering at them as entirely inaccurate. And this would be shown, they said, by the actual outcome which they predicted to be a sweep for the administration candidates because of their vaunted campaign machinery and money. Administration candidates at the tail end of the surveys even assailed them as mere propaganda of the opposition to create a bandwagon effect. But the election results proved the critics wrong and the pollsters, right.

On the other hand during the 2004 presidential elections, both of the reputable survey outfits came out with survey results predicting GMA’s victory over an immensely popular FPJ. When the survey results were confirmed by the outcome of the election, such results were cited by the administration as one of the main basis in claiming that they won fair and square despite charges of massive fraud brought about by that now famous and incriminating “Garci” tape.

In either case, the actual results of the elections proved that the predictions of the pollsters are correct. They showed that GMA indeed won the 2004 elections regardless of whether there was fraud or not; and that the opposition got 8 out of the 12 senatorial slots in the last 2007 elections despite the money and machinery of the administration candidates. Hence survey results should not just be casually treated and simply shrugged off by the persons adversely affected even if they are “mere perceptions that do not match reality”.

The perception of 42% of Filipinos that GMA is the most corrupt leader in contemporary times, even ahead of Marcos and Estrada who were ousted by people power and perceived to be such by only 35% and 16% of the Filipinos, respectively, may not really match reality and is unfair to GMA as Malacanang people staunchly claim. I am one of those who still believe that GMA herself is not tainted with corruption despite the series of corruption scandals besetting her government. Neither do I believe that she is more corrupt than Marcos and Estrada. Unfortunately that perception has taken shape because of the many unsettled corruption issues raised against her administration.

The publication and airing of charges starting with the “ Hello Garci Tape” on the alleged election fraud, the Joc-Joc Bolante Fertilizer fund scam, the jueteng payoffs, the North Rail Construction controversy, the ZTE/NBN bribery scandal that was subsequently scrapped, and the latest P500,000 cash gift distribution right inside the palace premises, should have spurred the administration to immediately and clearly prove the falsity of the said charges with hard facts and specific data. It should have allowed and fully cooperated with other branches of government in conducting a thorough inquiry where it could present the hard facts that would conclusively and more credibly confirm its oft repeated claim that the charges are false, baseless and politically motivated.

Unfortunately people and media were kept in the dark by repeated attempts to squelch the full blown inquiries into these many serious charges and by concerted efforts to skirt the issues through mere denials and counter attacks on the character and reputation of the whistle blowers and accusers. Instead of confronting those charges head on and exposing their falsity with the presentation of hard facts at the impeachment proceedings initiated purposely to afford the President the chance to prove her critics wrong, her allies in the Lower House of Congress resorted to filing three sham impeachment complaints that were subsequently dismissed on pure technicalities employing superiority in numbers instead of superiority in reasoning. Then when inquiries in aid of legislation were initiated in the Senate, executive privilege was repeatedly invoked to prevent Cabinet members from revealing what they know about the subject of the inquiries.

Forty-two (42%) percent of the Filipinos cannot be blamed therefore if they formed that harsh and unfair perception reflected in the Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan. That perception will not change by questioning the integrity of the firm that conducted the survey or by finding out the identity of the people who commissioned the survey or by blaming the media for airing the charges “without bothering to verify or even ask for the basis of the charges”. Media would of course be ready and willing to publish proofs that this perception does not match reality if such proof will be shown instead of being concealed and shrouded in ambiguity.     

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