Beating the odds

There are people who may not like GMA, but like it or not, she will be President of this country for the next six years. And as she confidently told us at the MOPC Gala Night last Wednesday, she is going to finish her term and deliver on her 10-point program. That is what we should hold her responsible for. The opposition, including Joseph Estrada who wants to unite it, will have to get its act together by taking her to task on all of those points. It should now focus on valid issues and stop being plain obstructionists or worse, pseudo revolutionaries.

Quite frankly, people are just sick and tired of all these negative stories and news that we’re going to have an EDSA IV. That’s just not going to happen. In the first place, EDSA II has been regarded by the majority and by Time magazine as a "mob rule" perpetrated by the middle class. The world will laugh at this country if we remove a president once more with another revolting sequel of EDSA I. Sure, Joseph Estrada has a lot of resentment because of the way he was removed from office and, as he claimed, he was just following the Constitution. But that is all gone now. GMA has beaten the odds and won the last elections unless proven otherwise. Now, we have to take her to task. 

The cause of EDSA I was the people’s discontent with Marcos. But now, people are just hungry and they are going to take desperate measures to get what they feel is theirs. Those who think an EDSA IV will be predictable, peaceful, and manageable are gravely mistaken and are misreading the people and the times. The confluence of events, which all boils down to numbers, will just overtake us if we do not address the fiscal problems in the short-term and don’t contain population growth in the long-term. It won’t be the middle class, the Church, and the United States changing the government – it will be hunger. In the event that a hunger-led revolt happens, there certainly won’t be any distinction between the Administration and the Opposition.  The hungry – who have nothing to eat, who have nothing lose, and nothing to fear – will change the government themselves. And after the smoke clears, only a US-backed junta will survive.

Karl Wilson, Agence France Presse bureau chief, beat me in asking the President on population growth. But I was glad to hear that GMA has finally accepted the fact that population is indeed the country’s long-term problem. She said that her Administration has now adopted a program to bring the growth rate down from the present 2.3 percent to 1.9 percent within her term. For the sake of this country, we hope she delivers. At the end of the day, that is the major issue that should have been addressed yesterday because that is where beating the odds on the numbers game begins.   

The other night, Frank Drilon told me that our short-term fiscal situation is a mess with too many interest groups lobbying for exemption one way or the other. Nobody seems to be willing to do his share. With that kind of attitude, Frank says it will be difficult for the government to raise P80-B in increased revenues this year. This is where a strong political will or better still a strong political whip comes into play. If Congress gives in to these interest groups, beating the odds on these numbers will be difficult. This is where GMA should use her presidential powers to neutralize those interest groups.  

If we really want to beat the odds, we just have to look at Thailand as an example. A study by the Asia Pacific Policy Center revealed that had we reduced our population growth rate to the same level as Thailand’s 1.58 percent, poverty incidence in the country would have been reduced by 5.5 percent, or just 3.6-M Filipinos. Managing our numbers, not cutting them down, is the key. Simply said, our population growth should be commensurate to our economic growth. Health Secretary Dayrit should be held responsible in ensuring that the government delivers on this promise to manage our population.

The Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce pointed out that the only way to grow our economic numbers is to bring down our population numbers. Foreign businessmen pointed out that no country with a fast growing population growth has ever achieved developed economic status. They stressed that a small tax base means low revenues and weak consumer demand. Basically, the foreign businessmen are asking in a more diplomatic way: You may have a lot of people but if they don’t have the money to buy, then what is the point in investing in your country?

GMA vowed that she will deliver on all her promises during her term. Several years  ago when she was still a neophyte senator, a close political ally of hers told me, "Don’t ever underestimate Gloria because she is a wily, intelligent, and determined individual who usually gets what she wants." Hopefully, GMA will beat the odds and will get what she wants, not for herself, but for the Filipino to finally get what he deserves – a prosperous and stable country – nothing less.

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At MOPC’s Gala Night, Defense Sec. Nonong Cruz stood out. He was articulate, knowledgeable, and he certainly knew what he was talking about. Another Cabinet member who was given credit for cutting down on kidnapping was DILG Sec. Angie Reyes. Both of these men, who are definitely doing a good job, deserve to be confirmed by the Commission on Appointments.

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