Read his lips - WHY AND WHY NOT by Nelson A. Navarro

New York – Being compelled to resign from the presidency is the moral equivalent of facing a firing squad. Of course, President Estrada’s reaction can only be one of angry defiance and total belligerence.

It doesn’t make resignation any more palatable for his critics and enemies to cite the national interest to force him out of office. In the first place, he remains in absolute denial about allegations that he took P530 million in bribes from illegal gambling sources and tobacco taxes.

That opinion survey after opinion survey has so far favored his accuser and confessed partner-in-crime, Ilocos Sur Governor Luis "Chavit" Singson, gives Estrada more reason to dread resignation as unmistakable confession of guilt.

And with the national economy taking a nose dive and political strife engulfing Manila and much else of the nation, any leave- taking from Malacanang can only be interpreted as proof positive of a failed and corrupted presidency.

Nobody but nobody relishes the thought of joining Ferdinand Marcos in the pantheon of disgraced Filipino Presidents.

Yet the President’s resignation may be the only decent and pragmatic way out for everybody concerned, Estrada included.

To prolong the dangerous politics of confrontation and stalemate can only pull the plug on the shaky Philippine economy and further imperil Asian regional stability that’s already reeling from the turmoil in Indonesia and Thailand.

Estrada’s defiance may be good for his ego and will certainly buy him more time in office, but it can only set the stage for a more shameful and violent departure from power.

No less than Senator Johnny Ponce Enrile, one of the President’s staunchest allies, has acknowledged that the only way for Estrada to recover lost credibility is to face a snap election. At the very least, he’s in bad need of a fresh mandate.

Guilty or not of the serious charges leveled by Singson and, more recently, former Philippine National Police chief Roberto Lastimoso, the brutal fact is that Estrada no longer commands the vast popularity that was his when he was elected to the presidency in 1998.

So unpopular and reviled has he become that the two living former Presidents, Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos, along with Cardinal Jaime Sin have called for his resignation. So have more than 60 per cent of the nation’s top businessmen, according to the influential Businessworld newspaper. Foreign investors, it must be noted, have long pulled out of the stock market, now barely alive in the dismal 1200 level.

That the ruling LAMP party still dominates both Houses of Congress and, therefore, renders Estrada safe from impeachment in the immediate future, can offer him little comfort. In the battle for public opinion, Estrada has clearly lost not only in the local media but in practically all the international media that bother to report on the Philippines.

But a snap election is out of the question because the Constitution requires that there be vacancies in the presidency and vice presidency before it can legally proceed.

Assuming Estrada and Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would resign to pave the for the snap election, Estrada can seek another mandate only at the risk of further dividing the nation. The complications can only be aggravated if Arroyo decides to challenge him.

Estrada faces a lose-lose situation. If he wins, he will be accused of cheating and abusing his powers. If he loses, his humiliation will stink to the high heavens.

Will Estrada ever accept resignation?

My humble opinion is that it’s not a question of whether he will accept this bitter pill but when.

Personal pride alone compels any President to talk big and hang tough, especially in the face of damning evidence of guilt and widespread public condemnation.

But defiant behavior forms part of the inevitable bargaining strategy. This will remain for as long as the president’s defense strategy holds and his support stays firm.

What needs to happen is for the potential successors to create, under conditions of utmost secrecy, real incentives for surrender. There’s the need for face-saving devices and, yes, standard guarantees like immunity from prosecution, departure for exile and being allowed to keep part of the loot.

Always, the benefits of resignation will have to be weighed against the horror of a civil war. In the case of Marcos, who vowed to die with his boots on, the Man from Batac took the money and ran. With Estrada, it’s hard to tell whether Marcosian pragmatism will prevail over a cinematic yearning to exit in what’s supposed to be a blaze of glory.