Sara’s unbeatable myth shattered

The OCTA Research was in the news this week after releasing its September report on the viability of possible presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the 2028 elections. The highlight was its comparison of the possible tandem of former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Bam Aquino against the pairing of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Robin Padilla. The report showed the Sara-Robin tandem leading with 48 percent, compared with 36 percent for the Leni-Bam team, or a 12-point nationwide difference.

In a television interview, OCTA President Ranjit Rye gave a regional breakdown. He said that in the National Capital Region (NCR), Sara-Robin leads Leni-Bam by 45 percent to 33 percent. Meanwhile, Leni-Bam dominates Balance Luzon with 54 percent, compared with Sara-Robin’s 24 percent. But Sara-Robin captured the Visayas with 60 percent and Mindanao with a commanding 86 percent, compared with Leni-Bam’s 30 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Some were quick to declare a sudden and dramatic shift in the numbers, particularly those from the Duterte camp, who naturally have an interest in spinning the results to fit their narrative. They claimed that Sara has now taken the NCR, which in previous surveys had been considered a Leni stronghold. They also argued that Sara remains strong despite being at the center of an impeachment trial involving allegations of massive corruption and unexplained wealth.

Some media reports echoed this narrative. And understandably, it alarmed some of those who see that there is quite a bit of smoke and mirrors surrounding the various interpretations of the report.

Let us see through the smoke.

First, OCTA’s survey fieldwork was conducted from July 4 to 11, the same period in which it tested another set of hypothetical tandems: Leni Robredo with Senator Raffy Tulfo versus Sara Duterte with Senator Imee Marcos. The Sara-Robin and Leni-Bam figures were therefore not gathered months apart. They came from the same survey period.

In that earlier matchup, the Leni-Tulfo tandem led with 45 percent nationwide support against 42 percent for Sara-Imee. In the NCR, Leni-Tulfo led 56 percent to 30 percent. In Balance Luzon, its lead was even wider, with 61 percent to 27 percent. In the Visayas, the two tandems were tied at 45 percent each. Only in Mindanao did Sara-Imee dominate, with 90 percent support.

So there is no sudden political earthquake here. The Leni-Tulfo versus Sara-Imee matchup and the Leni-Bam versus Sara-Robin matchup were fielded during the same period. What changed was not the electorate’s mood from one survey period to another, but the names paired with each presidential candidate.

What does it really tell us?

First, it tells us that the choice of running mate matters tremendously. The Leni-Tulfo tandem performed better than Leni-Bam, registering 45 percent nationwide support versus 36 percent. Likewise, Sara-Robin performed better than Sara-Imee, with 48 percent compared with 42 percent. Clearly, the choice of a running mate is not an afterthought. The running mate changes the numbers.

As such, the more important question is: How would the two stronger combinations, Leni-Tulfo and Sara-Robin, perform against each other? OCTA’s publicly released data do not answer that question.

Second, the report does not support the claim that Sara has dramatically taken the NCR away from Leni. With a Tulfo as running mate, Leni leads Sara in both the NCR and Balance Luzon, while the Visayas is essentially split.

Third, the survey does not establish that Sara has remained strong because of, or despite, the impeachment proceedings. OCTA conducted its survey fieldwork from July 4 to 11. The impeachment trial began on July 6. The survey therefore captured only the very beginning of the proceedings, before the trial had developed into the weeks-long political and courtroom drama that would later dominate television, social media and the national conversation. What available OCTA data show is that Sara’s national trust rating had fallen from 55 percent in March to 47 percent in July, a decline of eight percentage points.

What is crucial is that the narrative of Sara as an unbeatable or runaway candidate has already been shattered. The numbers no longer support it. The 2028 race is far from settled. In fact, it is already highly competitive. In one OCTA scenario, Leni-Tulfo leads Sara-Imee, 45 percent to 42 percent. In another, Sara-Robin leads Leni-Bam by only 12 percentage points, a relatively slim margin, and a big drop from Sara-Robin’s 25-point lead in a previous embargoed survey, as mentioned by Rye.

Of course, a lot can still happen. We are still well over a year away from the 2028 elections. After all, surveys are snapshots of public opinion at a particular point in time. The various matchups tested by OCTA are meaningful only within the context in which they were measured. And this is only one survey. More polls from other survey firms will come, which could either echo the same assessment or tell us a totally different story.

However, this provides a useful baseline for political observers and campaigners going into 2028. And based on the numbers so far, Leni appears to perform better when paired with a Tulfo, while Sara does better with Robin. What remains unanswered is how the two stronger combinations would perform head-to-head.

And then there is the elephant in the Senate chamber; the impeachment trial. The proceedings are still ongoing. The full political impact of the trial cannot yet be measured with certainty. But definitely, it will have an effect on the emerging possible presidential candidates. But one thing is clear. The presidential race is wide open, the running mate matters, and no one should treat 2028 as a foregone conclusion.