My interpretation of survey surge

A top honcho of a well-respected poll survey group was quoted, few days ago, as having observed a surge in favor of one of the two contending groups of senatorial candidates. I cannot name him here in this column because my information is second hand. In explaining this “surge” this survey personality accordingly claimed that there had been three surveys done so far and the increase in percentages had been phenomenal.

Basis. When there was news spread about two years ago that the International Criminal Court (ICC) was continuing its investigation into the alleged war on drugs of former President Rodrigo Duterte, a survey was conducted trying to feel the reaction of the people. A good number of those surveyed believed that it was a just move and an inevitable course of legal action. To them, there were just too many victims of horrible deaths but the authorities seemed unable to hold who were accountable. Finding the truth on who should be held responsible for the supposed mass murders answered the insuperable cry for justice. Some sectors even labeled the ICC investigation as a product of an incredibly diabolical mind, intending to decapitate an opposing political figure, nevertheless they accepted such investigation as part of social cleansing. I do not exactly remember the figures but i am certain that survey showed that there were slightly more numerous than those who responded to the survey question in the negative. If I may place identities to these apparently opposing groups, I had to put the label as BBM plus and Du30 minus.

Next survey. Followed the rumors early last year that the ICC was poised to issue a warrant of arrest of Du30. In fact, as a guest speaker in a regular weekly forum of the Kapihan sa Sugbo, I opined that such warrant could come in May or June last year based on whatever scanty papers I managed to read as well as accounts made by high officials of the land. For some reason, the families of the victims of the denounced war on drugs, began to come to the open. As result of their newly found openness, the next survey somehow indicated BBMM plus plus and Du30 minus minus.

Following survey. Two national events occurred quite closely to each other. One was the passing of the 2025 National Budget. I was shocked to hear later that it contained blank lines clearly intended for inserting allocations. It was a smoking gun kind of evidence of corruption pointed by the Du30 group. The other was a picture of more than two hundred members of the lower house affixing their signatures to the articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio. The revelation that the signatures of the congressmen were secured upon the release of mind boggling sums of money angered many Filipinos. When a relevant survey was conducted, BBM was negative but Du30 registered positive. The senatorial candidates of Du30’s PDP.

Survey results of an angered citizenry. On March 11, former president Duterte was arrested and brought to Netherlands. Many people did not understand the complexities of international law. Others firmly believed that if a hearing on the alleged crime against humanity is ever to be conducted against a Filipino, like Duterte it should be done within our territory. The resulting survey seemed to favor more remarkably Du30 and his bets for senator began to move up in the scales.

Latest survey. The supporters of the past president visibly mobilized. They held rallies here and abroad. Their unprecedented caravans succeeded to evoke peoples’ sympathy. I noticed that a survey released by pollsters few days ago indicated a surge of more than ten percentage points favoring the senate candidates of PDP some of whom have already replaced the earlier ranks of BBM’s bets. If Du30 can sustain this momentum in the next two weeks, PDP will have enthroned more senators to defeat eventually the impeachment of Sara.