Winners/losers in the Marcos-Duterte war

Even with the toned-down rhetoric of BBM and restraining impeachment moves on VP Duterte, the war between the Marcoses and the Dutertes is far from over. The weekend lull and the postponement of the NBI and congressional investigations is not even a pause, as behind the scenes skirmishes are ongoing. While the efforts to get mass support/people power by the Duterte camp is not taking off due to lack of logistics/resources, and a compelling moral imperative, it will continue for media mileage, even if less than 500 people showed up in EDSA, Veterans Hospital, and a thousand in Davao.

Majority of the Filipinos here and abroad are aware of this ongoing conflict, with some enjoying it as a kind of ongoing teleserye. Others view this as a political war with social and economic implications worthy of a “think tank” strategic/tactical conflict analysis and resolution with winners and losers.

The antecedents to current state of this conflict is the post 2022 election marginalization of VP Duterte and restrictions of her prerogatives as vice president. Due to her temper, sense of entitlement and unhampered Davao power, she went ballistic on these with scathing harsh words and criticisms against BBM, the Marcoses and Speaker Romualdez. Former president Duterte, not known for physical and verbal restraint, supported/added to this attacks on the Marcoses. Even the brothers Pulong and Baste Duterte joined in the attacks. Then, followed the Congressional Quadcomm hearings on the drug war and the budget hearings that exposed/placed both father and daughter in untenable/indefensible positions. These put the conflict in a “point of no return” as VP Duterte put it.

The unexplainable corrupt practices on the confidential funds of VP Duterte, and the linking of the Dutertes to the illegal drug business were/are direct assaults of the reputation and political influence of the Dutertes, that their counter-attacks became more personal and physical threats bordering on sedition, over and above their political attacks

On a 10-point scale to gauge who is winning this war at this time, with the feedback from the main and social media, the last poll satisfaction ratings, but discounting the “trolls” and other one-sided propaganda, the Marcoses would be 7 points and Dutertes at 3 points. These scores may move in both directions depending on further developments in this conflict. There are the obvious advantages of the Marcoses in power, access to more resources/logistics and better strategists and tacticians, while the Dutertes have been more reactive and gung-ho in their approach.

Except for their core supporters, the Dutertes have lost ground among the independent middle class, as the facts and the law are going against them. The demeanor/behavior of the father and daughter, while appealing to a limited macho crowd, does not play well to the broader society, especially these times of real time unerasable social media. The Marcoses are also losers as past crimes like the martial law years, unpaid taxes, and corruption issues have been resurrected, derailing the Marcos legacy rehabilitation agenda of the family. The timid reactions of BBM to the attacks/criticisms of the Dutertes also reinforces the weak and unknowing president tag on him, undermining his stature as president and as a person.

The other losers in this fight are the allies of Duterte especially those running in the 2025 elections like De la Rosa, Bong Go, and others. The ongoing exposés and counter-attacks will take a toll on them as Duterte loyalists. The Marcos loyalists are more distant from the burning issues and even from BBM, and could likely stand on their own.

The Philippine economy is a slight loser as this Marcos-Duterte war may reduce foreign tourists and delay foreign investments, but it will not be significant as there is a low probability of this escalating into an armed conflict. These will also be offset by the good governance bias of the corruption hearings and investigations.

Morality is already a partial winner in this Marcos-Duterte war as TRUTH has come out from this fight. JUSTICE is still not a winner as retribution and punishment is still uncertain and invisible.