Harris or Trump, does it matter?

Does it really matter for the Philippines and the world whether the next US president is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? The answer of course is from the global point of view – yes, it matters a lot. Trump is a confirmed isolationist who has threatened to unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. Harris has pledged to continue America’s role of providing leadership to NATO.

In the Indo-Pacific region, Trump publicly states that the US considers China as its greatest threat from both a military and economic point of view. If Trump becomes president, he intends to increase tariffs on goods and services from China.

At first glance, these policies may seem to favor the Philippines, simply because our foreign interests are now aligned in that both countries – US and the Philippines – view China as their greatest threat.

The only possible geopolitical cautionary note is that Trump can be ideologically unpredictable. His domestic and international policies are often transactional and not consistent. It is the opinion of many geopolitical observers that his foreign and domestic policies are often based on personal relationships. For example, he is considered by many as an admirer of Putin and has often bragged publicly that Putin likes him personally.

Harris, on the other hand, is often predicted to follow the traditional Biden Democratic ideology of being the world’s leader of the democratic forces. She will probably continue building an alliance against China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Most probably the difference between the Harris and the Biden foreign policy is that Harris may be more progressive or leftist in her ideology. This means that she will be more concerned about human rights than traditional American interests. For example, in the recent visit of Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu to the United States, he met with Biden, Trump and Harris.

The difference among the three was quite stark. Biden reiterated his pledge that the United States would always defend the state of Israel but urged a ceasefire. Trump had a very unique response when he said Israel’s biggest problem was that it had a public relations problem. Harris, on the other hand, while she said that the United States would defend Israel in the event of an invasion, she said that she would not remain silent if, in the ongoing conflict, civilian casualties would continue to increase. There was therefore a note of warning that in general, she would continue Biden’s policy of supporting Israel but she would be more demanding that Israel must do more in protecting civilian casualties.

In Asia, Harris does not seem to have a different policy than either Biden or Trump. If there is any difference, it would be that Harris seems more consistent in her policies.

In US politics, Harris has been considered as more on the liberal side, which is understandable considering her political background is that she is from California and San Francisco, considered the hotbed of liberalism in the US. As a California politician, however, she should be very well attuned to Asian affairs, since most West Coast politicians often are well-informed of Asian geopolitics. Furthermore, she is a former California politician, having been the state’s elected attorney general and the state senator before she was elected as Vice-President. There are almost two million Americans of Filipino descent in California, which means that California politicians, especially members of the Democratic Party, are familiar with Filipino-Americans and the interests they represent.

If we look at it objectively, it would be in the best interest of the Philippines for Kamala Harris to be the next president of the United States. Both Harris and Trump would probably pursue foreign policies that would be aligned with Philippine interests.

In addition, Harris’ perceived protection of human rights would be an additional incentive to wish for her election as president.

In US politics, African-American politicians like the Obamas and Harris have historically been defenders of human rights because of a long history of oppression of human and civil rights.

On another point, I recently read an alleged post that past president Rodrigo Duterte has asked Filipino Americans to support Donald Trump for president.

The latest polls reflect that the presidential contest is basically a closely contested fight.

The confrontation between the United States and its allies against China in the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea has become a global geopolitical concern. This has raised the status of the Philippines into a major actor in this issue.

The Economist is one of the world’s prestigious publications. Even up to recent times, it hardly paid any attention to the problem in the South China Sea. In its most recent issue, it carried an eight-page article entitled “Desert Island Risks.” It is the story of how Sue-Lin Wong of The Economist joined some Filipinos on a cruise through the disputed waters.

For better or for worse, the Philippines and the problem with China in the West Philippine Sea has become an international flash point.

The Philippines needs to continue to find allies in this struggle against a behemoth called China.

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