EDITORIAL - Midterm polls always go to the party in power

Except for a few surprises here and there, the results of the May 13 midterm elections hewed closely to what most observers anticipated -- that it was going to be a romp by the allies of President Aquino.

Aquino, of course, can claim this as a validation of his programs and policies. To a certain extent, it may even be conceded that it is a reflection of his popularity as well. That, however, is debatable.

Midway through a six-year term, a sitting president is far from being a lameduck. With three full years to exercise the awesome powers of the presidency, it is always wise for every politician to be on the side of whoever sits in Malacañang.

That is why the turncoatism that starts immediately after a new president is elected often reaches its highest heights at around the time of the midterm elections. Most everybody needs to be on the side of who can butter their bread.

If Philippine politics can be likened to the seasonal migration of birds, the midterm elections represent the apex of the south-bound migrations from the cold northern hemisphere winters.

But as the next presidential election draws near, the migration will reverse itself. Politicians will start making a beeline for who they think will be the probable winner and next president.

Thus, as in most previous elections, midterm elections will almost always go to the side of the administration. It is during the following presidential election that a reverse migration usually occurs, and a new beeline will likely head for the door of the opposition.

There are, however, some exceptions. Sometimes there will be no reverse migrations if the administration is able to put up a strong successor from within the president's camp. But then again, these are often the exceptions.

What usually happens is the administration in power will be rocked by greedy in-fighting among contending wannabe successors. On the other hand, being outsiders looking in, it is the opposition that will be more united and disciplined, making it attractive to the new turncoats.