Misbelief: Addressing polarization in these turbulent times

In his book Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things (2023), Dan Ariely explores why ordinary and even rational people come to believe extraordinary falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Drawing from behavioral science, psychology and personal interviews, he argues that misbelief is rarely the result of ignorance or low intelligence.

One of the book’s central insights is that misbelief develops gradually. People do not suddenly adopt extreme views; rather, they move along a pathway where repeated exposure to misinformation, reinforced by social networks and digital algorithms, slowly reshapes their perception of reality.

Ariely emphasizes that facts alone are often insufficient to change deeply held false beliefs because these beliefs are tied to emotions and social identity, and rather than viewing misinformation as merely a failure of intelligence, Ariely argues that misbelief often emerges from a combination of emotional distress, social isolation, distrust in institutions and the human desire for certainty and belonging.

This insight has profound implications for governance and diplomacy.

In governance, public institutions derive their legitimacy from trust. When citizens lose confidence in government, media, academia or other democratic institutions, they become more susceptible to misinformation and conspiracy theories. The challenge for public leaders is therefore not only to provide accurate information but also to build credibility, transparency and meaningful engagement with citizens. Effective governance requires nurturing social trust and ensuring that people feel heard and represented.

The same principle applies to diplomacy. International relations increasingly operate in an environment shaped by disinformation campaigns, strategic narratives and information warfare. States today compete not only through military and economic power but also through their ability to shape perceptions. Diplomatic actors must therefore develop the capacity to counter false narratives while promoting facts, dialogue and mutual understanding. The battle for public opinion has become as important as negotiations conducted behind closed doors.

Ariely’s work reminds us that facts alone are often insufficient to change minds. People are persuaded not only by evidence but also by relationships, identity and trust.

For governance and diplomacy practitioners, this means that communication must be empathetic, inclusive and rooted in credibility.

In an era of deep political polarization and growing information disorder, the lessons from Misbelief challenge us to strengthen democratic institutions, promote civic literacy and cultivate a culture of respectful dialogue. Ultimately, resilient societies are built not merely on the availability of information but on the public’s trust in the institutions that provide it.

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Gary G. Ador Dionisio is an Associate Professor and Dean of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde and is on the Board of Advisers of the Washington Global Institute, an international training institute for governance and development based in Washington.