Winners/losers in the Senate chaos

It might be difficult to know the real story on the incidents in the Senate last week. Whether the unseating of SP Sotto had something to do with the impending impeachment trial, if the escape of Bato was planned, and  if the shots fired were diversions, will be long debated. However, what can’t be denied are the objectives of the contesting Duterte and BBM camps.

The Duterte camp wants to avoid or delay the impeachment trial, as it will be damaging to Sara Duterte’s political ambitions. The BBM camp wants Bato arrested for his role in the EJKs, brought to The Hague for trial, to weaken the Dutertes in the impeachment trial and in the 2028 elections. As this is an ongoing fight, every new development will have an impact on achieving their objectives. Let’s evaluate who are the winners and losers at this juncture.

On the Senate re-organization, the new Senate president and the new majority is a win for the Duterte camp. However, Sotto and the minority are getting public sympathy, as the Cayetano group is burdened by Duterte loyalists like Go, Padilla, Marcoleta, Dela Rosa, and the group of Villanueva, Estrada, Escudero, Legarda, and the Villars, all involved in corruption scandals, which have colored their integrity. So it’s also a win for Sotto and the minority, who are coming out as the more principled senators. This is reflected in main and social media news, comments, and reactions which are predominantly against the Cayetano group.

On the surfacing of Bato in the Senate to vote, the chaos, and his escape from custody to disappear again, the losers are DILG Sec. Remulla, and the NBI for incompetence to secure Bato. Cayetano, Aplasca, and Robin Padilla for the faulty script and bad acting in the escape. The winners are Bato for his successful escape, and the media people for covering the chaos and not cowering in fear during the drama. The Duterte camp is also the consequential loser as it reinforces public perception that they will do anything, even break the law.

The Duterte propagandists had limited options to turn the chaos to their advantage, except to claim Bato should face trial in Philippine courts and not in The Hague, as this has been strongly refuted by legal experts and likely by the Supreme Court. It was surely an opportunity and a real loss for the Duterte social media armada.

Overall, the Senate reorganization, the light and shadow drama, the escape of Bato, and the immediate fallout of the incidents, with the impending impeachment trial, is a win for the Filipino people. It’s a win for the freedom of the Press, a win for transparency/accountability, and Philippine democracy, as it’s a win for truth and justice.

Politicians are aware and react to public perceptions and actions, more so now with the information available in main and social media. So Cayetano will have to convene the Senate as an impeachment court “forthwith”, as soon as this week. The BBM government will have to do their best to arrest Bato in the coming few weeks. We can be sure also that the impeachment proceedings will be aired live.

An earlier survey this year had 69% of Filipinos favoring an impeachment trial, and this is confirmed by an online petition that gathered 9 million signatures in four days during the Senate chaos. The outcome of the impeachment trial is unpredictable, as it’s a political numbers game, and the Duterte camp has the numbers. There are initiatives, strategies, and tactics the BBM camp can deploy, even if these are regularly denied.

While politics, especially Philippine politics, isn’t an arena of virtues, in this conflict between the Duterte and BBM camps, the BBM camp has the higher moral high ground. In the final analysis, we should hope and pray that it will be the Filipino people who will be the winners.