When war in the Middle East hits the Philippines

The United States claims that it has achieved its primary military objective, which is the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities. If this is true, now is the proper moment to give peace a chance.

President Donald Trump has raised the stakes dramatically. What began as a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on their various power plants, has now been extended to five days. He said that there are developments as there are “very good” talks with Tehran. This extension signals that diplomacy has not been entirely abandoned.

However, a spokesman from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps  quickly controverted Trump’s claim, saying, “The U.S. is negotiating with itself.” Such a statement projects defiance, even dismissal.

So who is telling the truth?

We can only hope that Iran’s strong rhetoric is part of the art of negotiation, an effort to project resilience and avoid appearing weak. It is common in negotiations for both sides to bargain from a position of strength.

If, however, Iran’s statement is intentional to send a strong message of defiance, then this is an enormous problem. This will prolong the war and can affect the whole world’s economy.

On the other hand, the United States must read Iran carefully. While Trump shows openness to a diplomatic resolution, yet this is paired with military preparedness. The continued movement of American troops into the region indicates U.S. readiness for the worst-case scenario.

Complicating this delicate balance are the voices of regional allies. Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, have urged the United States to continue the war against Iran. Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that this moment represents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East. Their appeal adds pressure on Trump to carefully weigh things out.

What if they choose the path of prolonged war? What will happen next? When will it end? How long can they sustain their ballistic missiles, their ammunition and other provisions necessary to survive?

Beyond the immediate actors, it is the rest of the world including our country, the Philippines, that may suffer the most. We know that we are heavily dependent on oil imports from the Middle East, hence the crisis has quickly trickled down to the ordinary citizens.

The rise in prices of petroleum products have been felt as early as the first week of the war. The domino effect on prices has been terribly felt by the ordinary citizens. This is on top of the problems faced by our OFWs who are still trapped in the Middle East, as well as those who have returned home and are now jobless.

Yes, we are not a party to the war. We have neither fired a single shot nor been hit by shrapnel from a missile. Yet we are badly affected as collateral damage in this conflict. What is ironic is that we may be among the first nations that cannot survive if our leaders fail to identify and act on the nation’s priority.

We hope that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration knows its priorities. For now what is apparent to the public is that congressmen are very busy focusing on the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Have they not seen the reality on the ground? Has the president not seen the reality on the ground?