Survey nudge

Although the numbers are not statistically significant, results of the latest surveys taken by Pulse Asia have noteworthy indications, according to Ronald Holmes, president of the polling firm.

Taken from Feb. 27 to March 2, Pulse Asia’s 1st Quarter Ulat ng Bayan survey showed both President Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte getting slight bumps in their approval and trust ratings, with the VP maintaining her lead over BBM.

The survey was conducted just over a week after Duterte announced that she was running for president. Holmes noted that the announcement didn’t cause a significant jump in her ratings, indicating that it was expected and didn’t pull new supporters to her side.

Polling also took place as the DDS were preparing to mark the one-year anniversary of the March 11 arrest and turnover of the VP’s father Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

In the months before the 2024 arrest, Holmes recalled that the VP saw her formidable ratings plummet amid the House probe linking her to corruption in her office and the Department of Education when she was its secretary.

Surveys even by other polling firms have shown that corruption has become one of the top concerns of Filipinos, alongside inflation and jobs. The latest Pulse Asia poll on the issue, taken at the same time as the performance and trust ratings, had similar results.

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The quad comm probe on the gross abuses of the drug war, which the VP’s father attended, also pulled down the Duterte name.

But the VP’s numbers recovered following her father’s arrest, and have since remained higher than BBM’s. Pollsters at the time attributed this to the family’s success in messaging, painting the Dutertes as underdogs deserving of sympathy, and the VP – known to be estranged from her father – remaking herself as an aggrieved, caring, dutiful daughter.

Marcos 2.0’s communications team flubbed the messaging big time on that watershed event in public accountability.

The first anniversary of the arrest, however, which also coincided with the confirmation of charges hearing at the ICC, no longer gave the same boost to the VP’s numbers, Holmes pointed out to “Storycon” on One News last Monday.

Holmes would not predict how the VP’s ratings might be affected if the ICC decides to proceed with the trial of Duterte. But the likely impact may be inferred from the latest survey results.

This point may be useful for those who believe the trial would clinch the presidency for VP Sara in 2028. Among them are members of the National Unity Party, who are demanding the release of funds for (what else) public works and other infrastructure for their districts alongside “new” evidence in the impeachment cases against the VP, while at the same time stressing that they are allied with the administration.

At least the mercenary moment was displayed openly, in a press conference, for voters to remember.

Yesterday, the Department of Budget and Management denied delaying fund releases for NUP congressmen.

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For BBM, the sputtering of the anti-corruption campaign plus persistent inflation and other economic problems pulled down his trust and approval ratings in the fourth quarter of 2025.

He can look on the bright side and see that the fall was not sustained, and his trust and performance ratings even saw a slight improvement. Like the VP, BBM’s numbers in the first quarter of 2026 are flat, with just a statistically insignificant nudge in the March survey.

How he handles the fuel crisis will have a heavy impact on his numbers in the next survey cycle – usually the end of the second quarter, before his next SONA.

BBM’s initial reaction to the crisis was not encouraging – jetting off to New York for non-events at the UN headquarters while government agencies were ordered to go on austerity mode. Some Fil-Ams kept watch at Sloan Kettering hospital amid rumors of the real reason for that sudden trip.

Maybe BBM listened to his energy secretary, who said yesterday that there is no oil crisis, only fuel at steep prices. She can co-author the Pinoy dictionary of the English language.

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Malacañang is also downplaying the situation, seeing no need to declare a state of national emergency to control rising prices notably rice, a politically sensitive commodity under BBM. The government is “in control of the situation,” the Palace said as it appealed against fear-mongering.

The price of the rice variety that I usually buy at my suki wholesaler has jumped by about P10 a kilo from about two months ago, and many varieties were not available when I bought my usual supply last week.

But I haven’t seen panic buying whether in the wet markets or major supermarket chains. I think people are still expecting the conflict to be short-lived. The biggest beef in fact is why oil companies and gas station owners can’t hold off dramatic price surges and wait a bit for the Middle East conflict to subside.

At some point, such sentiments, along with inflation, could be laid squarely at the doorstep of BBM. Since inflation and corruption remain the top concerns of Filipinos, the ongoing crisis could mean bad news for his numbers.

BBM continues to look unwell, but he led the dis tribution of ayuda for tricycle drivers yesterday. The House quickly approved special powers for him to suspend the fuel excise tax, and this time, the Senate moved forthwith, also giving its final nod yesterday to a counterpart measure.

At least BBM’s nightmare from hell won’t be faring any better in this crisis, unable to mobilize significant public resources to help people. The VP is also expected to face the impeachment proper by month’s end.

In the next survey round, there could be more than a nudge in the survey numbers of the estranged UniTeam partners. For both of them, the direction could be south.