Will People Power still work?

Is it probable to remove President Bongbong Marcos through People Power during his term? My answer is no. So what must his critics do? Prepare for 2028. And the way things are going so far, the woman to beat in 2028 is Vice President Sara Duterte.

For now, People Power will not work because the three factors that made it effective before no longer exist. In People Power I in 1986, the call was singular: Marcos resign! Around that battle cry, the people risked their lives when they marched and converged at EDSA. Dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Sr., fled the country and died in a foreign land.

In 2001, angered by widespread corruption under the administration of former president Erap Estrada and scandalized by the way the impeachment trial was handled, the Filipino people once again poured into the streets, particularly, EDSA. It was called EDSA II. The call was also singular: Erap Resign.

Compare that to the situation we have now. The calls are many. People are fragmented. There is Marcos resign! Another is Marcos-Duterte resign! Those who hate the Dutertes to the core of their being scream Sara resign! Worse, there is even a call for the setting up of a military junta, something vague and scary to many.

The second reason is that the Roman Catholic Church does not anymore have a leader with the stature, command, and moral ascendancy of Jaime Cardinal Sin. In 1986, this towering religious figure urged the people to leave their homes and put an end to the rotten and oppressive regime. The people heeded his call. He was also a key figure in EDSA II. Add to that the “Cory Magic.”

The third reason is that the military has not yet withdrawn its support for President BBM. In both EDSA I and EDSA II, that withdrawal was crucial. In 1986, then Vice Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Fidel Ramos and Defense Secretary Juan Ponce Enrile turned their backs on Marcos at the last hour. In 2001, then AFP Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes also withdrew his support for Erap.

So far, only four presidents have faced attempts to remove them through People Power. Two succeeded: Marcos Sr. in 1986 and Erap in 2001. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo parried all attempts. Now BBM faces similar attempts.

I think BBM has learned a lot from GMA. He studied how she escaped ouster attempts. Although there was a united call for GMA to resign, particularly following the NBN-ZTE and the “Hello, Garci” scandals, she succeeded in dividing her enemies. She took care (and that's a mild word) of the military.

BBM is taking care of the military through the strong assistance of former speaker Martin Romualdez. The military hierarchy is still behind Marcos, despite the fact that there are shared pro-Duterte sentiments in the rank and file, as evidenced by their favorable support for pro-Duterte senatorial candidates in the last election.

People Power fatigue may also explain why many no longer prefer such means to remove a president. For them, the 1986 and 2001 experiences did not yield significant results for the country.

So, the country is not in the mood for People Power. It is in the mood for 2028 presidential election. You can already sense the body language of those who are jockeying for the highest position in the land. Surveys after surveys show that VP Sara Duterte is leading. The second place is a far second, and all the way down.

The only path available to her opponents to remove her from the picture is to impeach her come February 2026 and 2027. If Sara survives, it may mean the presidency is her destiny.