Magical poll surveys

This early, we have been shown political surveys. There are observers claiming that some of these polls are sponsored and the survey results tend to project the image of the sponsor. So, I am horrified to think that make-believe statistics are employed to influence the minds of unsuspecting citizens.

The 2028 national elections are still 20 months away, I repeat, one year and eight months away. Perhaps because the election is still too distant a future, there is only one person who has declared to be running for president. She is Sara Zimmerman Duterte Carpio, the vice president of the republic. I am not in accord with the mischievous insinuation that the groups supportive of Carpio are the sponsors of these surveys. In any case, while there are quarters who opine that this declaration of her intended candidacy is rather too early, there are also those who believe in the timeliness of this announced candidacy.

Why declare this early? There is one palpable reason I can think of for her doing so. She wants to galvanize her perceived loyal senators for the purposes related to her impeachment trial. Now, think again. For many citizens, poll surveys, of the kind I have mentioned above, are more of a kind of gimmick than true litmus papers. If, indeed, the “sponsored” survey results can project that Vice President Carpio has high winning percentage, the senators, who are now senator-judges, can be persuaded to align with her cause and be a part of a perceptively victorious team in the coming 2028 elections. There is where the gimmickry appears founded.

The Carpio strategists are not wanting in political history. They should know the stories of two vice presidents of the past. One was Diosdado Macapagal, who was elected vice president of Carlos P. Garcia. Cong. Dadong, effectively spent his entire four-year term (1957-1961) laying the groundwork to run against the incumbent president. Macapagal’s extensive barnstorming around the country for four years produced good results in getting about 3.5 million votes against a popular Garcia who obtained almost three million. The early campaigning of Inday Sara is an attempt to replicate Macapagal.

The Carpio think tank must have also studied the more recent case of another vice president. Jejomar “Jojo” Binay, began preparing for the 2016 presidential elections as early as September 2011, just over a year after he took office as the vice president of President Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino. His efforts made him the early frontrunner in the presidential preference polls for the 2016 presidential elections, holding massive leads in the 2013 and 2014 poll surveys. Statistical data of the country’s top pollsters Pulse Asia Research Inc., and Social Weather Stations, showed Binay as the top choice for president, capturing as much as 40% to 41% voter preference.

The challenge to the Carpio camp is how to avert the kind of collapse suffered by the Binay campaign in 2016. They should recall that following intensive Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee hearings regarding alleged corruption and overpricing tied to the Makati City Hall parking building, Binay’s numbers dropped. Freefall. There were surveys that were observed to be attempts to show a resurgence of the Binay candidacy but they failed to reenergize his presidential bid.

The Binay statistical free fall should concern Inday Sara. Jojo’s corruption investigation is not unlike the impeachment and grave threats the vice president is now facing. These cases have a tendency to erode Carpio’s much-ballyhooed popularity. Perhaps, they should continue sponsoring for more magical surveys to cushion the impact of damning impeachment results.