Consequences of no impeachment

The main and social media are ablaze with the news on the possibility that the impeachment trial of VP Sara will be aborted and not proceed. Senate President Escudero postponed the start of trial date from June 2, 2025 to June 11, 2025, and there are moves by some senators not to take up the impeachment complaint for lack of jurisdiction. The civil society, with the UP Law professors, constitutional convention delegates, religious organizations, and the cause-oriented groups are urging/pressing the senators to start the impeachment process “forthwith” or as soon as possible, as mandated by the Philippine Constitution.

The Duterte camp with their allied senators is making moves to junk the impeachment complaint which was signed by more than 220 congressmen. Senator de la Rosa drafted a resolution to be filed with enough senator signatures, for the Senate to refuse to accept the impeachment complaint. Some senators allied with the Dutertes are making subdued signals of supporting the resolution, but there has been no mass clamor even from the Duterte diehards to stop the impeachment process.

The reason for the ambivalence of the Duterte camp to push hard in aborting the impeachment is the massive public sentiment against it. In two opinion poll surveys, one when the impeachment complaint was filed months ago and another one two weeks ago, 68% and 88% were in favor of the impeachment to start, and for VP Duterte to answer the charges in the trial. While the Duterte camp may want to avoid the trial for fear of the damaging evidence that will be made more public, there is the greater potential damage to VP Sara if the impeachment is aborted. The main and social media reaction of this possibility confirms this, so VP Sara has publicly announce that she wants the “impeachment” to go on and it will be a bloodbath, even if they are still maneuvering to stop the start of the impeachment process on June 11, 2025.

There are larger and broader consequences and implications in not proceeding with the impeachment process, and it will affect not just VP Sara, the Duterte family and allies. It will affect the senators, the political parties, all politicians and the overall political situation in the Philippines. The political future of Senator Escudero and other senators will be severely damaged beyond repair, and the 2028 presidential election will strengthen the real opposition fueled by the Gen X voters who will fuse with a disgruntled civil society.

Aborting the impeachment process will also reinforce the perception of majority of Filipinos that the political elites, which includes the Dutertes, can get away with anything while the ordinary citizen get indicted/arrested for the smallest infraction. This will turn off people from politicians and political dynasties whether from the Duterte or the BBM camps.

If the senators and partisan politicians did their political/economic cost-benefit analysis right, the correct move is to proceed with the impeachment. Even VP Sara would be better off confronting the impeachment trial rather than avoiding it on technicality for her political future, including in the 2028 elections. Stopping the impeachment will be her political dead-end.

There is an 88% probability that the impeachment will start on June 1, 2025 and will be finished by the end of July, 2025. It is to the interest of the Duterte and the BBM camps not to prolong this distraction for political expediency. The Philippine economy with the ongoing global economic headwinds and the geopolitical tension in the West Philippine Sea needs attention from the administration. The Duterte camp has The Hague trial of former president Duterte and will be assessing/preparing for the 2028 election.