Is the war still going on?

This was the question when on May 30 a Filipino friend saw me hunched over my computer watching a Russian oil depot in flames. It was followed by a compilation of burning logistics trucks and fuel tankers on the newly-finalized Russian highway through the land bridge in occupied southern Ukraine connecting Russian Rostov on Don to the Crimean peninsula. Russia President Putin calls it Novo Rossia (New Russia) but Ukrainian president Zelensky calls it “temporarily occupied Ukraine”.

When on February 24, 2022 Putin announced a special military operation in Ukraine he ordered his soldiers to bring their parade uniforms because within a week they would celebrate the victory parading through the Ukrainian capital Kiev. He couldn’t imagine that four years and three months later on May 30, 2026, day 1,557 of the full-scale invasion Russia has lost 1,362,500 military personnel, 12,000 tanks, 43,000 artillery pieces, 1,400 costly air defense systems among other losses.

Actually the war has been going on for 12 years when Putin ordered to invade Crimea and large parts of the Donbas while Ukrainians were not prepared for war trusting the 13-points peace package of the Minsk Agreement concluded by Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia in 2015. But Putin broke the agreement seven years later.

There are many reasons for Putin’s failure to subjugate Ukraine: outdated military doctrine, Russian mothers protesting against mobilization of their sons into the Ukrainian “meat grinder”, declining support for Putin’s war, the chaotic economy, and the devaluation of the currency, this among many other reasons. When Ukrainian drones flew over Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and other cities hitting military targets deep in the provinces, Putin’s decision to abolish all internet channels except one, the official Max channel that allows the authorities to spy on the users was also one reason.

Since about two months, combat on the battlefield has reached a turning point: Russians still gain square kilometers in territory in a few places but Ukrainians liberate more occupied land elsewhere. The reason is a change in tactics introduced by Defense Minister Mikail Federow: The overly-ingenious Ukrainians produce millions of unmanned swimming, rolling, and flying devices disabling the conventional and almost equally high-technical Russian war machine. The Ukrainian-trained drone pilots hinder the Russian aggressors from approaching the battle line. They eliminate the soldiers on foot bike, tanks, armored vehicles, trucks, and cars in the kill zone up to 50 kilometers from the front line. Only very few Russians can break through the defenders’ positions and raise a flag anywhere in a village, before they are also victimized by a swarm of flying drones. Now the Ukrainian soldiers can move into the land cleared from the enemy.

Times are over when Zelensky begged the Western powers for arms aid. Now Ukrainian drone specialists are requested in the Arab countries around the Persian Gulf, in Europe and even the USA to share their knowledge. Huge investments are made in this technology. Future wars will be fought by unmanned robotic machines. China is perfecting the drone swarm tactic. And what is the Philippines doing?

Erich Wannemacher

Lapu-Lapu City