Defused

India and Pakistan have been warring for decades over competing claims over the Kashmir. The world might have chosen to ignore this irresolvable squabble over landlocked territory high up the mountains had it not been for one thing: both countries are armed with nuclear weapons.

A turn for the worse could lead to a nuclear exchange. No one wins a nuclear war.

The latest outbreak of hostilities between the two countries lasted for three-and-a-half days. Although happening out of the range of the world’s main media channels, this short-lived war was intense and destructive.

The combatants fired innumerable missiles at each other. Major air battles involving scores of fighter jets broke out. Before other countries intervened to pressure both India and Pakistan to agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, Indian airpower devastated most of Pakistan’s military installations – including those that presumably hosted nuclear weaponry.

The dispute between the two large countries began as soon as they won independence in 1947. The British, who colonized the subcontinent, decided to break the territory up into Muslim-majority Pakistan (including East Pakistan, now Bangladesh) and Hindu-majority India. As they did when they withdrew from the Middle East, the British drew the boundaries in haste, neglecting ethnicities.

In the Middle East, the withdrawing colonial power completely neglected the area inhabited by the Kurds. This distinct nationality is now distributed in areas of Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. Kurdistan could have been a separate nation.

So is Baluchistan, now divided and distributed between Iran and Pakistan. There is a lingering armed rebellion waged by this distinct nationality.

Kashmir has a Muslim majority. But it has been subdivided into the part controlled by India, the one controlled by Pakistan and a sliver controlled by China. The Kashmiris want independence as a sovereign nation, but they are up against major powers not willing to give up the land.

The Kashmiris are ruled by truly powerful regional powers: India, Pakistan and China. All of them are now nuclear powers. Any independence movement for a free Kashmir will be crushed.

This latest round of hostilities was sparked by the massacre of 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali in the popular travel destination of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. The gunmen were affiliated with any of the armed movements that proliferate in the area and which India accuses Pakistan of sheltering.

Responding to the Pahalgam incident, India mobilized its armed forces to eliminate what were considered sanctuaries of “international terrorists” within Pakistan’s border. “Operation Sindoor” was eventually launched with the tactical goal of destroying terrorist camps across the border.

Pakistan, defending its airspace, managed to down several Indian fighter aircraft. With superior air power, India escalated the conflict by bombing military installations across Pakistan. Islamabad responded by firing missiles at Indian military facilities. Significantly, both sides deployed drones against each other.

The danger of a nuclear exchange loomed large when the two countries decided on a ceasefire. It was the only logical thing to do.

Donald Trump, who paid scarce attention to what was happening in South Asia, was quick to claim credit for the cessation of hostilities. This was a barefaced attempt at credit-grabbing. Both New Delhi and Islamabad were quick to point out that the ceasefire was mutually agreed upon by the two warring countries.

While a nuclear exchange has been averted for the moment, the root causes of the tension remain.

As hostilities were building up, Islamabad issued a call for Muslims in Bangladesh and inside India to undertake actions against the Modi government in New Delhi. That was a dangerous and ill-advised call to make. It threatens to elevate a territorial dispute to the status of a holy war.

Into the foreseeable future, neither India nor Pakistan will be willing to give up their competing claims over Kashmir. China, certainly, will not offer to give up control over the parts of Kashmir under its control.

It is this situation of competing territorial claims that inspired both India and Pakistan to invest much wealth in building up their nuclear weapons capability. Both countries spend lavishly on their militaries while large sections of their population suffer staggering poverty.

The hostilities between the two counties not only drain precious state resources. This permanent state of war ingrained the role of the army in Pakistan’s governance. In the name of defending national territory, the people of Pakistan have surrendered power to the army and suffer its repressive rule. The have a national security state in its worst form.

The Modi government in India, for its part, draws support from Hindi nationalists who completely distrust India’s Muslim minority. Any resolution of the confrontation will undermine Modi’s grip on power. He needs Hindi-Muslim tensions to thrive.

China thrives from selling military hardware to Pakistan. France has been a major supplier of war material to India – although the US is trying to grab that lucrative trade. Peace will be bad for business.

In a word, deep-seated political and business interests will keep the tensions going for the next several decades. There is an unspoken consensus for maintaining this condition for permanent war-footing.

The only losers in the continuance of this status quo are the Kashmiris. They are allowed no voice in this conflict. No third party stands up for their rights to nationhood. They are condemned to see their land divided by big powers.