Preparing for invasion of Taiwan

It seems inevitable that there will come a time when China will invade Taiwan and attempt to totally conquer this island. It also seems inevitable that once China invades Taiwan, the Philippines will be involved in this struggle, either directly or tangentially.

One nagging question is, why would China be so obsessed with the island of Taiwan? This seems like a struggle between Goliath and the island of Lilliput. China has a population of one billion 416 million, while Taiwan has only 23 million, 500,000. China has a land area of three million 705,000 square miles, while Taiwan has a land area of only 13,892 square miles.

In modern history, it was actually Japan that ruled Taiwan from 1985 to 1945. Then in 1949, the Kuomintang or the Chinese Nationalist Party government under Chiang Kai-Shek fled to Taiwan and established the Republic of China in this island of Taiwan.

Since 1949 up to the present, Taiwan has retained an independent government. It has become one of the strongest economies in the world. If China ever invades Taiwan, the Philippines will definitely have to become involved. There are close to 300,000 Filipinos currently working in Taiwan who will have to be evacuated or at least protected during any war between the two states.

Any invasion of Taiwan will have to begin with the total blockade of the total island of Taiwan. Its southernmost tip is visible from the northernmost island of Batanes province in the Philippines. Any total blockade of Taiwan means that Chinese naval vessels will have to intrude in Philippine waters. This will cause a dilemma to the Philippine government, whether to defend its territorial sovereignty against Chinese vessels or simply stay silent.

In the event of an invasion, the biggest question is whether the United States will intervene in defense of Taiwan. Under Biden and other previous American presidents, this intervention was considered as inevitable. Although the Trump government views China as its major adversary in today’s global geopolitics, there is always a question mark with regards to Trump’s foreign policy actions.

In the first few months of his presidency, he has treated some of his closest allies like Canada and western Europe as adversaries. He has, in so many instances, expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin, who is supposed to be one of the biggest enemies of liberal democracy in the world.

However, at this writing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly indicated that the United States is committed to defend Taiwan and the Philippines from any foreign invasion.

There are three possible reasons why China will someday initiate its long held ambition to invade and annex Taiwan. The first is that Taiwan is a critical part of the so-called island chain composed of Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Malaysia, which is the barrier between China and its open access to the Pacific Ocean. Instead of utilizing diplomacy and other peaceful means, China has decided to use economic and military force to subjugate the nations comprising this island chain.

This is the reason that China has decided to claim the entire South China Sea, the island of Taiwan and the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands from Japan.

The second possible reason is despite its small size, Taiwan is an economic and technological global powerhouse. It controls almost 80 percent of the production of the most critical semiconductors and high-end computer chips. Control of Taiwan would make China the superpower in modern technology and overtake the United States.

The third reason is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has staked its legitimacy on bringing Taiwan back into the fold of mainland China. This issue has thus become a cornerstone of the CCP’s claim that it is the only political party that can restore China to its goal of becoming the sole superpower in the world.

The future of the world today seems to be in the hands of two imperialist powers. The first is China with its imperial claim of territories like Taiwan, South China Sea, Tibet and parts of India. The second is the United States under Trump which is now claiming Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal.

A decade or so ago, the speculation was that the year 2025 would be the year China would invade Taiwan. Obviously this has not happened, mainly because China is undergoing serious economic problems. Also, it is now in the midst of tariff and trade wars with the United States.

However, during the same period, it should be noted that China is producing weapons at an unprecedented pace. In the past three years, it has built over 400 modern fighter jets, developed a new stealth bomber, demonstrated hypersonic missile capabilities and doubled its missile stockpile. The military analyst Seth Jones has estimated that China is now amassing weapons five to six times faster than the United States.

It may come later than expected but I believe that China, sooner or later, will attempt to invade Taiwan. Due to our geographic location vis-a-vis Taiwan, it seems that the Philippines, whether we like it or not, will become involved. This country must therefore prepare for that time when China will invade Taiwan.