Should the impeachment be delayed or expedited?

This impeachment is a landmark event in Philippine history. It is a tipping point and a game-changer. The conviction or acquittal of the vice president shall immensely influence the presidential elections of 2028. Her acquittal shall be a big blow to the administration and may catapult VP Sara to the Palace. Her victory may push the Marcos-Duterte overall strategy to the brink of total failure.

And so, should the process be expedited or delayed? The answer to that question depends on who has the numbers among the incumbent senators. This process is not so much about the merits of the case. This is purely a numbers game. This column, based on our perceptions of the leanings and inclinations of the incumbents, believes that there may not be enough senators who are going to convict.

Thus, setting aside the merits of the case, it is my opinion that there are critical as well as strategic and tactical moves related to the impeachment of the vice president that both the prosecutors and the defense panels should consider. Considering that impeachment is really a political exercise, rather than a judicial or legal proceeding, both sides should consider these views.

If I were to give unsolicited advice to the Marcos-led administration coalition, I would counsel them to delay the impeachment. Why? Because the prosecution may not have the required 16 votes among the incumbent to convict the vice president. I have a rather speculative inkling that the senate president and the Palace are really working to delay due to this political reality.

Contrary to the moves of the defense in going to the Supreme Court to derail the impeachment, if I were to offer my two cents worth of advice, I would suggest very strongly that the Duterte defense team should move to expedite the proceedings right now. Why? Again, I would venture the view that, as of the moment, the Palace does not have enough votes to convict.

That is why the president is campaigning very hard to have a 12-0 victory for his anointed senatorial bets because, as an astute politician and being advised by many experienced political operators and strategists, the president is not sure that 16 among the incumbent senators will vote for conviction.

Let us remember that BBM was among the three senators who voted to acquit the late Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato C. Corona. He was the only non-lawyer who agreed with the famous dissenter Joker Arroyo and the perennial oppositor, Miriam Defensor Santiago. With his frame of mind, BBM is imagining that many of the incumbent senators are going to vote for acquittal.

I strongly believe that the prosecution does not have the numbers. Senators Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa and Robinhood Padilla will never vote to convict Inday Sara. I think 113 million Filipinos would agree. Senator Imee Marcos is very vocal for the vice president. Imee and Sara have one thing in common. Both of them believed that this impeachment was not the idea of the president but of the Speaker in tandem with the First Lady.

The Cayetanos: Senators Pia and Alan Peter are most likely for acquittal. Why? Alan Peter was the vice presidential team mate of former president Digong, and he would not have been elected Speaker without the Duterte support. Pia, as a lawyer like her brother, would most likely vote like how two great lawyers did: Miriam and Joker in the Corona case. The Villars: Senators Cynthia and Mark are likely to acquit. Even Raffy Tulfo with Mindanao roots and his sister being a Duterte cabinet member, may vote to acquit.

Even Tol Tolentino would look back at how the Dutertes gave him a strong backing to win his Senate bids after repeated senatorial bids. Senator Joel Villanueva and Nancy Binay may even vote for acquittal. The good one, senator JV may vote to convict but not the more astute one, Jinggoy. As a bar topnotcher and a Mindanaoan, senator Koko may even vote to acquit. Bong Revilla may even acquit for he knows in his heart the value of acquittal which he experienced himself. Migz Zubiri, as a Mindanaoan is most likely to acquit.

That means that only senators Lito Lapid, Loren Legarda, Grace Poe, Win Gatchalian, Risa Hontiveros, and Chiz Escudero are leaning towards conviction. The Palace and the House do not have 16 senators required to convict. Therefore, if Malacanang is using its strategic mind, this is not the time to hold the impeachment trial. Wait after the majority of BBM's anointed ones shall win. Only Willy Revillame and Philip Salvador may survive the Sweep. Thus, it is better to wait for June.

The Duterte defense team should strategize to expedite and never to delay. The Dutertes have the numbers right now. The Palace does not have, Strike while the iron is hot. Bring it on and let the cookie crumble. I think the Dutertes need a strategist in their team. The have a lot of loudmouthed trolls, but they do not have a real thinker.