What will happen when China invades Taiwan?

It is of common knowledge that the Communist Party of China views Taiwan as a rogue state within China’s greater sovereign domain. By constitutional mandate, China is committed to unify Taiwan with the mainland either by peaceful means or by force.

With Taiwan asserting its independence, an invasion of the island state by China is likely at some point in the future. Some analysts speculate that it could take place in 2027 in conjunction with the centennial anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. Others believe that a Chinese invasion will not occur within the next decade for three reasons. One, China’s economy is in bad shape and Beijing is not in a financial position to finance a war. China’s military is not strong enough to face America’s barrier of deterrence in the first island chain. Third, China plays the long game and is waiting for America to weaken.

No one really knows when China will make its move. But nations are preparing for the eventuality, as they rightfully should.

For years, the US has maintained strategic ambiguity as to whether it will defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. This ambiguity was broken in September 2022 when President Joe Biden declared that America would indeed come to Taiwan’s defense. With this, a showdown between the world’s two superpowers could very well ensue.

The effects of war on the Philippines

ASEAN is expected to maintain neutrality in this armed conflict since its member-states have interests to protect from both the US and China.

But neutrality is not an option for the Philippines. The Philippines and the US are bound by a Mutual Defense Treaty and the Philippines has granted America access over its airspace, maritime domain and nine military bases. As such, the Philippines, along with Japan, will be the de facto launching site of American military action. Moreover, the Luzon Strait and the West Philippine Sea are expected to be theaters of conflict, thus, dragging the Philippines into war.

A war over Taiwan will have far reaching implications on the Filipino people, its economy and its future.

For one, fear of being caught in the crossfire will spark a refugee crisis among Filipinos similar to the Vietnamese refugee crisis of 1975. Those unable to flee from perilous areas will face the loss of livelihood, property and lives.

The economic impact will be substantial. A war in Taiwan will interrupt the country’s strong economic momentum and derail its path towards high-middle income status; China and Taiwan are the Philippines’ third and eighth largest trading partners, respectively. Both are integral suppliers of raw materials and intermediate goods. The disruption of trade will affect Philippine manufactures and exports. The humanitarian cost of war will weigh heavy on the Philippines and this can potentially relegate the country to a debt crisis. The damage to infrastructure and opportunity loss from tourism and investments will be substantive.

The specter of China’s successful take-over of Taiwan will also pose risks to Philippine security. This is because Taiwan is the strategic and geographical buffer between China and the Philippines. With Taiwan subsumed, the Philippines becomes the next logical target for China’s expansionism. Moreover, Beijing’s control over Taiwan increases China’s power projection in the region and this will adversely affect Philippine claims over the West Philippine Sea. Worse, Chinese control of sea lanes puts free trade in the Indo-Pacific in peril.

Effects on global players

The Center for International Studies recently conducted war simulations to assess how an invasion might play out. If war in Taiwan were to break out today, the simulation shows bleak outcomes for China. In other words, China will be unsuccessful in its invasion whilst sustaining enormous damage to both its military and economy.

China’s export economy will collapse with the combination of trade sanctions, supply chain disruptions, logistic barricades and general contraction of global trade. This will result in a spate of bankruptcies among Chinese enterprises. China will also lose access to global finance for which it sources $7.5 trillion a year. This will result in the collapse of the Chinese financial system.

As for collateral damage, the Chinese will be left with tens of thousands dead, wounded or captured. Its navy and amphibious force would be obliterated, for which it will take a decade to rebuild. Meanwhile, China will cement its image as a global pariah and this will be leveraged by the US to isolate her even more.

The US will sustain some financial and military damage but will recover faster than China. However, it will be among the hardest hit economies when the global recession takes hold.

Taiwan, as the decisive theater of conflict, will be broken in terms of human casualties, military assets and infrastructure. The damage will set it back by 40 years. Taiwan will struggle to deliver basic services to its citizens immediately after the conflict and will rely on foreign aid.

The effects on the global economy will supersede the Ukraine war. After all, China is ten times larger than Russia and Taiwan is four times larger than the Ukraine. Global supply chains will be dislocated, what with Taiwan being the source of 92 percent of advance computer chips and China a supplier of most intermediate and manufactured goods. All these will trigger a shortage of food, smart electronics, raw materials and capital equipment. This will lead to worldwide hyperinflation, coupled with a long protracted economic recession. It is expected to set the world economy back by 20 years.

The invasion of Taiwan can take place tomorrow or in 2035. No one really knows. One thing is for sure, we must all prepare for it with a sense of urgency. Meanwhile, tensions in the region fester.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan