Inauspicious

This election campaign is off to an inauspicious start.

At the campaign launch of the pro-administration senatorial slate, President Marcos admonished his candidates against indulging in negative campaigning. Then he proceeded to deliver a negative campaign speech remarkable for its inaccuracies.

Marcos could have chosen to stand above the fray and directed public attention to the larger goals of his rule. He could have chosen to make this campaign agenda-focused. He might have tried to make this an edifying exercise, building consensus rather than peddling hate.

But alas, the President wanted this to be a mud-slinging affair. He has set the tone for it. It will probably be to his disadvantage.

A negative campaign will make this electoral exercise a polarizing affair. It will transform this midterm elections into a referendum on the quality of leadership delivered by the Marcos II government. It will make Bongbong Marcos the issue.

This might not be the best strategy for a ruling faction that otherwise holds all the cards. It has assembled the candidates with highest name-recall around its banner. It has amassed the billions in patronage money to ensure electoral victory – totally distorting the national budget to achieve this.

This lopsided contest could have been a walk in the park for the Marcos-led supermajority. It has the dynasties lined up on its side. It fielded veteran candidates who might have been useful in building public consensus behind administration programs. BBM might have presided over this routine electoral exercise from the commanding heights of his powerful post.

But he decided to sling mud and make this a divisive campaign. He threw harsh words at those who were already severe underdogs. He imbued the rhetoric of this campaign with bitterness.

With BBM setting a negative campaign tone, the pro-Duterte candidates quickly returned the favor. The launch of the PDP-Laban senatorial ticket was defined by sharp attacks against BBM. This opposing campaign is gearing to make this exercise a referendum on the failure of the first three years of Marcos II.

The sharp attacks on BBM were led by former president Rodrigo Duterte. These attacks aimed at precisely the vulnerabilities of BBM’s leadership: food inflation being the most salient, weak and indecisive leadership being the pronounced undertone.

In the manner only he could deliver, the former president accused the incumbent of drug addiction. Whatever its merits, this accusation resonates. It certainly makes the sitting President the focal point of political debate.

Only by making this a referendum on the sitting president can the Duterte-led coalition hope to even the odds. They should now try and galvanize public discontent, building on the perception of corrupt and ineffective leadership.

In a polarized campaign, both the pro-administration and the Duterte-led coalition will simplify the issues at stake. Polarization will eliminate the various independent and third-party blocs attempting to break into the electoral arena. It will allow the escalation of political rhetoric, designating the anti-Marcos candidates’ champions in protecting our democracy.

Few expected this electoral cycle to be an edifying one. It will not resolve the issues that divide us. It will not educate our people on the strategic challenges facing the nation. A great number of candidates vying for Senate seats are recycled politicians or celebrities relying entirely on name-recall.

The quality of candidates offered the voters is hardly inspiring. We are not choosing the best statesmen to lead our people into a new future. We are not settling any great historical debate in this exercise.

What we have before us is a personality-centered power struggle, driven by dynasts and oligarchs. The tilt towards negative campaigning will make this campaign even less edifying for our voters.

The ruling coalition has pulled out all the stops to ensure itself victory. It has amassed the logistics of patronage by mangling the national budget. It has mustered the political clans to ensure control of the outcomes. Over and above winning the May elections, the ruling coalition is trying to ensure it remains in power long beyond.

The shrill partisan rhetoric on which the contending campaigns have been set is a disadvantage for the individual candidates. Some of them represent distinct perspectives about the national future. But that cannot be articulated above the din of wild accusations and arbitrary characterization.

Media organizations are doing their part in helping candidates articulate their plans and programs. But the whole contest has been cast as a struggle between the Marcos and Duterte families. It is tough to grow patches of sober political discussion when the entire exercise has been predetermined as a war between two political dynasties.

Vince

DOTr Secretary Jaime Bautista, citing health concerns, submitted his resignation. In his place, the President has appointed Vince Dizon.

The reception to Dizon’s appointment to the vital post has generally been positive. The incoming transport secretary has proven his mettle when he headed the BCDA and then served the anti-COVID effort during the Duterte administration.

Bautista served his post well, despite the complex politics and entrenched interests that engulf our transport policies. His main achievement has been the privatization of the Manila International Airport, a bold decision, given all that ails our premier air terminal.

Numerous daunting challenges face the DOTr. We have seen how Vince works and there is reason to be hopeful he can get more things done over the next few years.