Mid-range attack

A nuclear war-ready Russia and an incensed China have vowed retaliatory measures against America’s prepositioning of a mid-range capability (MRC) missile system in the Philippines. Deployed in Laoag City in April, the United States Army Pacific proudly refers to the land-based, ground-launched system as a historic first in Asia-Pacific. As a potential launchpad for American aggression, our country becomes an unfortunate target for military reprisal from both Russia and China.

The system, also known as Typhon, comprises a battery operations center, four launchers, prime movers, and modified trailers. It can fire a medium-range missile such as Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) that can travel between 500 to 1,800 miles. After the US announced Typhon’s deployment in Northern Luzon, the first official reaction came from the Russian Ambassador to the United States. He accused America of purposefully escalating the military confrontation in Asia-Pacific to bring the world back to the dark days of the Cold War and on the brink of a nuclear conflict (RT TV).

I understand the distance between China’s South Sea Fleet in Zhanjiang, Guandong Province and Laoag City is less than 1,000 miles. Meanwhile, the Vladivostok Naval Base of Russia is within striking distance of an intermediate missile (operational range: 1,800 to 3,400 miles).

Fair warnings

In March, President Vladimir Putin cited Russia’s technical preparedness for a nuclear war relative to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. At the 75th anniversary of the Sino-Russia diplomatic relations, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping condemned the US deployment of ground-based intermediate-range missile systems in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. The leaders pledged to strengthen bilateral coordination to address America’s hostile dual containment policy. (Geopolitical Economy Report).

On May 30, Chinese and Russian officials again denounced the Typhon system. The Russian Foreign Minister considers the MRC a major security threat since it can target Russian command posts and nuclear forces. It leaves Russia, which possesses the most number of warheads in the world according to ICAN, with no choice but to beef up its nuclear arsenal. The official is convinced that America will also request other Asia-Pacific nations to host their weapons.

China’s defense spokesperson also referenced the Cold War era in lambasting the MRC. It has heightened tension, provoked bloc confrontation, and squeezed the security space of other nations (Xinhua). Ominously, the Chinese official cautioned the Philippines and America that: “Those who invite wolves into their house will get bitten, and those who pull chestnuts out of the fire for others can only get themselves burnt.” He said the Philippine-US military exercises undermine the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia.

The warnings from the superpowers — with a combined warheads of 6,000 — should alarm the public. The country is gearing towards a nuclear war precipice. In contrast, the US has 5,000-plus weapons within its territory and in the host countries of Italy, Turkey, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.

According to ICAN, a single nuclear weapon detonated in a city as big as New York can kill around 583,000 people. It is almost the entire population of Ilocos Norte. Should a US versus China-Russia war break out, one of the immediate battlegrounds will be the home province of President Bongbong Marcos Jr.

In a political commentary, maritime policy analyst and author Dr. Mark Valencia noted that as early as 2019, the US wanted to deploy intermediate missiles in Asia. With an operational range of 620 to 3,420 miles, the weapons will be for offensive and defensive purposes against China. He stressed that no country was foolish enough to risk becoming a Chinese target in a war.

Not until the Americanophiles in the current regime gave the US four additional Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in 2023. They think that with the installation of the MRC, the country’s external defense capabilities have been bolstered. I doubt whether the Americans will allow Filipino soldiers to gain access to the system. I do not believe they will donate the weapons and equipment to our military. Thus, in allowing the installation of Typhon in Northern Luzon, the favorite son of Ilocos has unwittingly placed his fellow Ilocanos and the Filipino nation in a precarious situation.

Failed invasion

What should the MRC deployment in Northern Luzon remind us all? It is reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis that nearly precipitated a nuclear holocaust in the 1960s. It began with America’s humiliating defeat in the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. In 1961, the US sought to overthrow the Fidel Castro-led government. Castro entered into a secret agreement with then-Soviet Union premier Nikita Khrushchev to deploy medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles in Cuba to counter the American threat.

To diplomatically settle the issue and prevent nuclear testing, President John F. Kennedy challenged his Soviet counterpart to a “peace race instead of an arms race.” The crisis was averted when the Soviets dismantled their missiles in Cuba while the Americans withdrew their weapons in Turkey. The world leaders realized that a single press of a button could have destroyed human civilization and the planet. The bilateral negotiations resulted in a Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and a Comprehensive United Nations Treaty in 1996 (Kennedy Library & Museum/State Department).

In 1987, US President Ronald Regan and Soviet Union premier Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 300 miles and 3,400 miles. Both countries destroyed more than 2,600 missiles before the June 1991 deadline. However, the US officially withdrew from the Treaty in 2019.

Today, we face the same existential threat of warheads vaporizing peoples, living things, ecosystems, and countries in our region. So, why do we keep listening to the war rhetoric of America? What does Uncle Sam’s hegemonic war against China and Russia have to do with the Philippine national interest?

Diplomacy and dialogue remain the best way for the Philippines and other states to avert a potential nuclear war. After all, there are no victors in an Armageddon of this scale and scope.