Testing, testing, 1, 2, 3…

After claims were made that we have a “state of calamity” resulting from traffic in Metro Manila, the Metro Manila Council (of mayors) will now roll out their solution.

As presented to various media outlets and practitioners, the solution is to have two different working hours for the public sector/government at 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. and the usual for the private sector. The presumption is that splitting the office hours of public and private offices will spread the volume of vehicles on the road, and the rush hours won’t be as congested.

The MMC should then also sit down with the DOLE and DepEd regarding 1- or 2-day online work or school or a combination of online and half days because students also ride round trip.

The MMC solution is certainly better than nothing, but even the MMC and the MMDA can’t say with certainty if the plan will work. This is probably because there is no science to back up the plan developed by “armchair experts” and not based on “differential diagnosis” that I keep hearing on the program “House, MD.”

Clevelandclinic.org defines differential diagnosis as “a list of possible conditions that share the same symptoms.” In terms of addressing the perceived “state of calamity” caused by traffic, the disease/symptom is caused by a number of conditions. Unfortunately, the MMC/MMDA is now prescribing first aid.

Let’s diagnose. Who determined we have a state of calamity? Most reports point to the MAP, while other media claim it’s “businessmen.” How did they conclude we have a “state of calamity?” Three years ago, they said the economy was losing P2 billion a day due to traffic, now they claim it’s P3.5 billion. Is it scientific data or guestimates?

If the noisiest wheel gets the oil, I would ask the “businessmen” how they are affected, what their solution would be from their sector and how much of a sacrifice are they willing to make within their sector to help solve the problem. Would they be willing to pull resources towards the best solution instead of losing P3.5 B a day?

Every time traffic becomes a headache in Metro Manila, all eyes and mouths are always on car owners and commuters. “Armchair experts” all shout TOO MANY cars. But no one has ever admitted that the Vehicle Volume Reduction Program of the MMDA failed because people/families simply bought another vehicle. As a result, we have even more cars on the road as well as parked on the streets for lack of residential garages.

Ironically, it is the business sector that has found a way around the “truck ban” law by fielding thousands and thousands of different small and medium modified delivery vans that have flooded the streets of Metro Manila. These modified vans, mostly violating production specs and safety standards, are the business sector’s way of circumventing the “truck ban” rules of the MMDA and LGUs.

I have nothing against mobility and logistics being maximized, but there is a serious need to audit and thereby recognize what is the volume of space taken by modified delivery vans and the traffic they generate.

If Francis Zamora and the MMC wants added impact to their solution, they should focus on getting all businesses to come up with late night or dawn deliveries. Asking malls to adjust operating hours won’t be as helpful as asking malls, hotels, business establishments to adopt what is already a global practice.

According to truckers and logistics operators I’ve talked to, the nighttime deliveries is actually preferable for them because there is less traffic, fewer kotong cops and enforcers and turnaround time is quicker. The problem is many malls and companies don’t want to shift to nighttime deliveries because of added staffing, etc.

The MMC and MAP should study who among the business giants are already doing nighttime deliveries and warehousing and get their testimonies or endorsement. From there, they can put together a pilot or test group who will be given “immunity pass” from kotong and delays, just like the COVID years for food and medicine deliveries. There is global data and science behind this solution, not just guess work.

I previously pointed out in a column that we are slowly losing lanes on EDSA. In some parts the lanes may be there, but they are intermittently shrunk. The MMC members should go for a drive from Monumento to MOA and see for themselves.

Lane reductions, U-turns that eat up a major highway and leaving traffic flow to human intervention is not and has not solved the problem of flow.  We either build above or below ground infrastructure or we just crawl around in circles.

The LTO and MMDA readily present guestimates on the number of motorcycles on the road to be in millions. Some claim 12 to 15 million nationwide. The bulk is in Metro Manila where, to this date, the MMDA and the DPWH are resistant to assigning one protected lane that would stop lane splitting among riders and slowing down of vehicle flow due to their zigzagging. What about an elevated road made of steel for motorcycles only?

Speaking of reductions, every time I ride a Grab car, two out of three drivers lament how their earnings have drastically reduced because the LTFRB opened up thousands of slots for Grab and motorcycle taxis. I have heard of politicians and celebrities owning 50 to 100 such units, which is another reason there are so many cars and motorcycles in Metro Manila. Regulation has failed!

We may soon find ourselves confronted with a choice: ride or walk or ride less. By then, three-day car bans won’t seem so impossible. That will be the real calamity!