Jihadists

For his own purposes, Vladimir Putin has been trying to link the deadly terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow to Ukraine. The casualty figure for that attack has now risen to 139.

Putin’s false narrative has been undermined, however, by Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko’s own account of what happened. The fleeing terrorists, says Lukashenko, tried to cross into his country but were turned away by heightened border security. Putin was insisting that Ukraine had provided some sort of escape route for the terrorists.

Four Tajik terrorists were subsequently captured by Russian police and immediately presented to court, all bearing obvious signs of torture. One suspect, caught on camera, had his ear cut off by Russian security agents and was made to eat it. Another was photographed with electric wires attached to his testicles. The Russian security services are not particularly known for their observance of human rights.

Putin acknowledged that the attack on the concert hall was the handiwork of jihadists. He still insists on implicating Ukraine, even if the Kiev government is headed by a Jew.

The jihadist attack adds to Putin’s troubles. It brings to the fore another source of threat to the precarious domestic security situation in Russia.

Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K) did claim responsibility for the attack almost immediately after it happened. The US, presumably through electronic eavesdropping, did warn that this terrorist group was up to something. The Americans shared information with the Russians, although the warning was dismissed by Putin.

Putin does not want too much attention given to jihadist threats against Russia. He probably sees this as a vulnerability for himself.

Recall that Putin rose from obscurity as an intelligence officer for the defunct KGB when he was put in charge of suppressing the Chechen revolt. The Chechens are Muslims and have earned a reputation for being brutal combatants.

The suppression campaign led by Putin was remarkably brutal. He bombed Chechen cities and gave Chechen rebels no quarters.

When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, Chechens were among those tasked to bear the brunt of the fighting. They did so with characteristic brutality.

The IS-K is based in Afghanistan, a nation that fought a long war with what was then the Soviet Red Army. Although this group has its own issues with the governing Taliban, it shares deeply rooted disdain for the Russians.

Putin also sent troops to help the Assad regime in Syrian survive a bloody civil war. Russian regiments mounted a brutal campaign against the Sunni rebels, many of them affiliated with the ISIS. That bombing campaign took thousands of civilian lives and the complete devastation of the ancient city of Aleppo.

The Sunni militants are not about to forget this brutality nor forgive the Russians for indulging in it. Fighting continues to this day in the northern part of Syria where ISIS fighters are holding out.

The fact that the terrorists that mounted the Moscow attack were all Tajik is significant. While Tajikistan is an independent nation, nearly half of its GDP comes from remittances from Tajiks working in Russia. This is the poorest of the former Soviet Asiatic republics.

With more and more Russian men pressed into military service in the war against Ukraine, Russia needs Tajik labor for its own economy. Moscow is not about to drive away Tajik nationals working in Russia. But given the circumstances, Russian security agencies will have to double their surveillance of these guest workers.

Tajikistan borders Afghanistan. It will be the natural route for jihadists seeking to create trouble in Russia and make life difficult for Putin.

The IS-K apparently has some capacity to mount more terrorist attacks. In the wake of the Moscow attack, France raised its domestic alert levels. Turkey, where some of those involved in the Moscow attack are said to have trained, mounted a sweeping police crackdown on suspected militant cells.

We know, from our own experience with the Maute group in Marawi and other radical Islamist formations, that the ISIS continues to maintain some global reach. The jihadist group extends material support to allies to train new terrorist formations.

Russia is far from being a homogenous society. It is a federated entity encompassing an array of distinct ethnicities – not all of them happy with Russian rule or the increasingly difficult life they now live under Putin.

Should public displeasure over how Putin runs things begin to spiral, ethnic identities could become a medium for anti-regime politics. Secular opposition, such as the one led by Alexei Navalny, could rise. More menacingly, anti-Putin resistance could emerge from the subordinated Muslim populations such as those in Chechnya or in Tajikistan.

Putin knows this, of course. He knows that jihadist groups are not his friends.Their radicalism could spike if the domestic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate.

This is why Putin would want to paint the attack in Moscow as something plotted by Ukraine and the West. Maintaining this rather tenuous propaganda line helps him downplay problems with the subordinated Muslim populations.

Putin’s aggression against Ukraine has been costlier than he expected. It depleted Russia’s armory and her best trained regiments. There will be more costs down the road and meeting those costs will mean shifting resources from social programs to armaments. An impending call for more conscripts will be unpopular among the Russian people.

Should Putin lose this war, his power will quickly evaporate.