Triad or Quad vs one bully

Back from his five-day official visit to Japan, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) once again is under fire from both friends and foes as well, as expected.

For his most bitter critics, no amount of dollars, euros or yen worth of new investments, business deals, and not even fresh infusion of official development assistance (ODAs) can please or appease them.

To his credit though, PBBM showed his diplomatic mettle and ability to drum up support for the country’s economic development by bringing home not only goodwill but plenty of investment commitments from Tokyo. These include the 600 billion yen, or about P250 billion that the Japanese government vowed.

PBBM is also astute enough to know that by forging closer security and economic relations with Japan, he is in fact advancing the interests of the United States (US) in the region by creating a strong alliance with the country’s traditional development partners.

The President also scored a sort of diplomatic feat in his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Japan is now looking at the Philippines to be the first recipient of its latest security grant. Under a new framework designed to strengthen the defensive capabilities of its allies, Japan will provide a security cooperation grant to the Philippines. This is on top of Japan’s regular ODA programs that are limited to non-military purposes.

Japan’s budget for fiscal year 2023 has earmarked 2 billion yen, or $15.2 million, for the new security program started by the Kishida administration. It is very likely the Philippines stands to receive funding and equipment from this new program of Japan.

The security agreement between the Philippines and Japan could eventually pave the way for the formation of a security “triad” with the US to strengthen military and security ties to include holding joint military exercises. We can thus expect it will include the participation of Japanese troops very soon in a sort of “Balikatan” annual military exercises of the US with the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

PBBM himself sounded very confident about the renewed engagement with Japan. “After our meeting, I can confidently say that our strategic partnership is stronger than ever, as we navigate together the rough waters buffeting our region,” PBBM told Kishida during their tete-a-tete at the Prime Minister’s office.

The Philippines and Japan signed on Thursday the Terms of Reference on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, which is seen as a step to allow both countries to deploy forces on each other’s soil.

Thus, PBBM did not discount the possibility that the idea of the Philippines and Japan might enter into a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) like what we have with the US and Australia. A few days before he embarked on his working visit to Tokyo, PBBM welcomed the additional four new locations in the country for the inter-operability of the Philippine military with American forces to respond more effectively to natural disasters and other crises, including in the South China Sea.

This was capped during the latest visit in Manila of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III who took up this matter with his Philippine counterpart, “acting” Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. Under the existing Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) of the Philippines with the US, both sides agreed to move expeditiously to begin projects at the new EDCA sites.

Clearly, such signals that the Philippines is emerging as a very important player once again in the global geo-politics. Given the country’s strategic location in the heart of the Asia-Pacific region, PBBM has taken the Philippines to play greater role not only in the regional affairs but in the global stage as well.

And this the President achieved in nine trips abroad done in less than a year in office.

In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News on Friday, PBBM was quoted as having disclosed plans by his administration to review the proposed “tripartite agreement” on defense and security cooperation with the US and Japan. According to him, this was among “other ideas and other proposals that have been raised between the Philippines and Japan” during his official talks with Mr. Kishida.

“I think it is just part of the continuing process of strengthening our alliances because in this rather confusing, and I dare say dangerous situations that we have, I’m not talking only about the South China Sea, I’m not only talking about the Indo-Pacific region but, of course, there is a conflict still ongoing in Ukraine and the rather disturbing effects that it has all around the world,” PBBM pointed out.

This early, Senator Francis Tolentino, who chairs the Senate committee on foreign relations, did not only welcome such tripartite security set-up but also wants this expanded to include Australia. A powerhouse country in the Asia-Pacific region, Tolentino recalled, the Senate approved the reciprocal VFA entered into by the Philippine government with Australia in 2007 and later went into force in 2012. “For me, my thinking is this could not only be a triad, but this could already be a quad,” Tolentino cited.

The idea of a “Quad” was first broached last year during the SMNI interviews of presidential candidates who included Mr.Marcos. Among the interviewers of the aspirants during the campaign period for the May 9 presidential elections was then University of the Philippines (UP) political science professor Clarita Carlos. Carlos raised the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or “Quad” for short-- composed of the US, India, Australia and Japan) which was still evolving at that time.

Then presidential candidate Marcos favored entering into security dialogues or agreements with other countries as long as these clearly benefit the Philippines, while underscoring the importance of the country’s existing 1951 Philippines-US Mutual Defense Treaty.

PBBM has not changed tunes since then. Whether it will be a “triad” or a “quad” arrangement, obviously it has a common target: a known bully in the region.