The Trump card

The world is on edge watching the latest developments in the lead up to the Nov. 8 US elections, with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck-and-neck. Poll results have been wildly swinging from day to day, with one report saying Trump has gained the upper hand with a one percent margin over Clinton, only for the figures to change several hours later with surveys showing the Democrat candidate posting a five percent lead over her Republican rival.

There is particular interest in the number of undecided voters at an estimated 13 percent – considerably high in this late stage of the elections which is just a couple of days away. With the presidential race getting even tighter, both candidates have been working overtime to court votes in swing states such as Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina (with its 15 electoral college votes) where, according to some political analysts, the turnout could be particularly critical. Swing states (or battleground states) are those where the results have not been consistent in every election, with support for candidates quite evenly divided.

No doubt the outcome of the US elections will impact the lives of Americans and likely affect billions of people all over the world, as the victor could set the direction of the world’s largest economy and superpower in the next four years. While some argue that the prominence and supremacy of the United States has diminished in the last couple of years with some countries like China and Russia emerging as challengers to its preeminent position, the US – as one economist puts it – is still in a position to greatly influence the global economy and geopolitical discourse.

While she will have her own set of priorities and policies that may be distinct from Barack Obama’s, a victory by Hillary Clinton would mean a continuation of the initiatives by the current US administration, among them the “pivot to Asia” policy. We see this victory as a boost to global stock markets with everyone expelling a huge sigh of relief at the prospect of sustained globalization, predictability and stability – things that will go a long way in treading the path of economic growth, no matter how modest. A Clinton government would also be reassuring to investors that free trade will continue. At least that is what experts say.

On the other hand, a Donald Trump presidency would likely change – drastically, some predict – the dynamics as far as the global economy and geopolitics are concerned.  If one were to go by the campaign rhetoric of Trump, America will tread the path of a “protectionist” platform. The Republican candidate has made outsourcing and liberal immigration as key issues, saying companies that engage in outsourcing have taken away jobs from college-educated Americans and given them to foreigners.

Trump has also threatened to scuttle America’s alliances, saying these ally nations and organizations (such as NATO) will “have to pay” or else they will have to “protect themselves.”

Some of our Japanese friends have bucked Trump’s allegations that Japan has not been pulling its weight with regard to its alliance with the US, pointing out that Japan contributes around $1.8 billion annually for the maintenance of US bases and troops. South Korea for its part ponies up some $850 million a year to defray the cost of maintaining US troops near the border that divides the Korean Peninsula.

Even Australia – which has been a steadfast ally of the US since 1918 when they fought Germany – was worried enough to send a diplomat to meet Trump adviser and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, and stress that Australia is not only an important ally of the US – it is also an “invaluable partner” to China being a major exporter of coal. In short, the Australian diplomat was sending subtle signals that Australia’s options are not limited. Interestingly, Trump advisers have reportedly reassured Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop that Trump’s views are “his own” and not necessarily reflective of the Republican party’s position.

Maybe President Duterte looked at a crystal ball and saw something that many didn’t see coming, which could explain his recent pronouncements about a “separation” economically and militarily from the US. Our friend NEDA chief Ernie Pernia also admitted that a win by Trump could impact the country’s business process outsourcing industry with the possibility of some BPO companies pulling out. The Philippines can perhaps take its cue from Mexico, which is preparing an “economic contingency plan” in case of a Trump presidency, which the Mexican Central Bank governor has likened to a “hurricane” hitting his country.

Everyone is pleased and relieved to hear President Duterte is prepared to listen to honest-to-goodness advice on climate change, our military alliances, the peace process and other key issues. That is why now more than ever, the Philippines has to craft a cohesive, long-term foreign policy in preparation for potential ramifications in case of a win by Donald Trump, as this could change the entire equation.

Bets are up in the coming US elections and like poker, people have to deal with the cards they get. Worldwide, the Trump card is an unknown. No one knows for sure what will happen. But as I always tell many of my friends and regular readers all over the world – life is a game of chance; you have to deal with what you get. There are some who are worried about how our president will deal with a Trump win, but we shouldn’t worry about it too much because in the end – US-Philippine relations are much bigger and stronger – which not one person can undo.

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