Duterte takes the lead; Illegal seizure of TUCP

Based on the independent surveys funded by a foreign entity and the latest survey taken in the social media on the preference of netizens, Rodrigo Duterte, who reportedly filed his COC on Nov. 27 to run for the presidency, is clearly in the lead.

The four independent surveys cover a total of 12,000 respondents from all social classes in four regions, including Metro Manila.

During the FVR presidential campaign, BayanKo adviser Jose Alejandrino had conducted simulation exercises based on the results of similar surveys. As he wrote in his memoirs, he had predicted FVR would win in a seven-way presidential race but not by more than 25 percent of the votes. The final result was 23.58 percent. He had also predicted which provinces FVR would carry. He only went wrong in Cavite that went to FVR.

The surveys, taken between Oct. 21 and Nov. 14, show Grace Poe in second place, Jojo Binay in third, Mar Roxas in fourth, and Miriam Defensor Santiago in fifth.

These surveys were conducted on the assumption Duterte would run as president.

In the vice presidential race, Bongbong Marcos is in the lead, followed by Leni Robredo, Chiz Escudero, and Gringo Honasan. Alan Cayetano was not included in the survey.

Now that Duterte appears to be the leading candidate for the presidency, he can expect the dirty tricks department of his political rivals to train their guns on him.

This kind of operation was apparent in the recent forceful and illegal takeover of the TUCP headquarters by the two sons (Michael and Raymond) of former TUCP president Democrito Mendoza who were accompanied by 50 persons and 10 security guards despite the decision of the Court of Appeals, affirmed by the Supreme Court, that Ernesto Herrera and not Democrito Mendoza was the rightful president of the TUCP. After Ernesto Herrera passed away, Ruben Torres was elected president to succeed him.

The illegal and forcible takeover of TUCP headquarters shows a clear disdain for the law, something the Aquino government chooses to ignore when it suits them. Earlier on, recently elected TUCP president Ruben Torres had confided to BayanKo he was under “heavy pressure to endorse Aquino’s choice of Mar Roxas for the presidency or else face the destruction of the TUCP.” After Torres bowed to the pressure by issuing a public statement endorsing Mar Roxas, strangely enough the Mendozas quickly moved in to take over the TUCP.

My guess is the Aquino government needs desperately to ensure the full cooperation of the TUCP and its millions of members to use them as a prop to justify the hocus pocus election of Mar Roxas by PCOS machines given his consistently low standing in opinion polls.

IT experts like Glenn Chong have criticized the lack of security features of these voting machines as required by law. Comelec continues to ignore their criticisms. By doing so, it has reinforced the growing public perception cheating will again occur in the 2016 elections. We may be headed for failed elections.

The General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation Asia Pacific, Noriyuki Suzuki, issued a strong condemnation of the action by Democrito Mendoza in his letter to Ruben Torres dated Nov. 26, 2015.

“This kind of action utterly defies the principles of the free and democratic trade unionism which we have been upholding.

“We, the ITUC - Asia Pacific, condemn the forceful and illegal reoccupation of the TUCP headquarters by the group in defiance of the decision by the Supreme Court. Ruben Torres rightfully succeeded as the new president of the TUCP in accordance with the TUCP Constitutional process. Ernesto Herrera had earlier been upheld by the Supreme Court as the rightful TUCP president succeeding the former President Democrito Mendoza who resigned.”

Leonardo Montemayor, president of the Federation of Free Farmers, has asked me to diffuse the ITUC statement.

These political machinations could be aimed at weakening the Katipunan, of which the TUCP is a member, that the established order sees as a threat to them. They fear the rise of a strong labor party composed of the marginalized sectors of society. It would not be far-fetched to assume the next stage would be the ouster of Ruben Torres as president of the TUCP and his replacement by a more docile figure like the Mendozas. Torres was the former executive secretary of FVR who supports Duterte.

The established order also views the candidacy of Duterte as a threat because of his promise to rid the country of plunderers, scoundrels and lawless elements. It is this promise interestingly enough that has appealed to a wide segment of the populace, including the lower classes, judging from the results of the independent surveys.

“If the surveys and my analysis are correct,” Alejandrino said, “it can mean the beginning of the end of the established order or the old guard. Why are Duterte and Marcos leading in the surveys? My view is because they are perceived as being firm. They talk of a revolution. Their concept of what it is may differ but is seen as the same by the public in that it denotes change. The other candidates – Poe, Binay, Roxas – talk of continuity and their programs are basically the same. That may explain why they are trailing in the polls. By resisting change, they are perceived as being part of the old guard. By resisting change, they are pushing people to the politics of despair and these are turning to candidates like Duterte and Marcos who favor change. In other words, more and more people are becoming revolutionaries and are turning to leaders who are revolutionaries. Naturally, Duterte’s rivals would like to see Duterte disqualified, but if the Comelec disqualifies him, then I see a major revolt by the Dutertistas who now appear to be the majority and then we could have the start of a real revolution that could bring down the established order. That is probably part of God’s plan to eradicate evil and rebuild a new Philippines. Let us see how events unfold. We are living in interesting times.”

Coming from an Alejandrino, a family of revolutionaries, what he said could well be an understatement. The final battle between katipuneros and punyeteros.