Why De Lima should run for senator
The four-day Iglesia ni Kristo rally in Metro Manila and the aborted provincial rallies have varying and different effects on the candidacies of the potential presidential candidates, of the vice presidential candidates and of some senatorial candidates; and this is the reason I stated in earlier columns, why it is very hard to predict election outcomes. Nobody can predict certain events from happening, and the effects on the candidates are visible and quantifiable only after the events. There will be other events that may happen between now and election day and it will affect the candidates positively or negatively depending on the events and the actions and reactions of the candidates. But we still can make probability assessments of the winnability of the candidates at a point in time, which in this instance is the week after the INK rallies.
Majority of the upper lower class, middle class and the upper class especially in the urban areas were against the INK rally, not just on the traffic inconvenience it caused, but also because of its irrationality. They could not accept and understand the reasons given by the INK officials for the rally and the show of force. The "separation of the church from the state" and the "freedom of religion" arguments were totally out of line. The rally and the INK's actions in all these years contradicted these two arguments. Listening to the radio, watching TV and reading the comments in the social media, impressed me greatly on the level of intelligence of the middle class and in its ability to see through these arguments. This should give us hope for the future of our country.
After the dust have settled on the rallies, it seems that Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay, Bongbong Marcos, Chiz Escudero and Rodrigo Duterte, who had supported or issued statements in support of the INK rally, lost some voters. Roxas and De Lima on the other hand, who stood by the rule of law and cited following due process gained some voters. How much were gained and lost would be available in the next poll survey of the Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia, which should be out in the second week of September and October. While the pandering of Binay, Escudero, and Marcos on the INK were expected by the people, Poe and Duterte's position was a surprise as they had cultivated an image of a non-traditional politician, and this was what got them a following. Maybe it was bad advice from some of their political handlers, because they now seem to be on a repairing or image rebuilding works. Poe and Duterte should just have trusted their "instincts" on this INK issue rather than listen to advice. If their candidacies have noble motives, their instincts or consciences will get them through the elections as the same persons, or better and not worse, win or lose.
The biggest beneficiary of the INK rally is actually De Lima. The amount of publicity she got in all media is tremendous and worth millions in advertising and public relations time. If we have to quantify in pesos the media time in radio, TV, newspapers, and social media the five days that she was headlining and front paging, my guesstimate would be twenty five million pesos of media exposure. And the exposures were 80 percent positive for her, even factoring the INK radio and TV stations that were attacking her. The issue of her involvement in the prosecution of the complaints against the INK hierarchy will also not fade even when she resigns as Department of Justice Secretary, since the cases will proceed in the proper pace and which will straddle the election season. Properly exploited, the issue will generate a counterbalancing force or voters to offset the one million voters of the INK that will not vote for her. All she has to do is explain the propriety of her actions as justice secretary on this INK issue, and the other cases that she had been through in line of her position.
De Lima have impressed people and has a reputation as a no nonsense worker since the time she was a human rights lawyer, and as head of the Human Rights Commission. In fact, this was what got her the job of justice secretary. Aside from her marital status, she has no controversial baggage so far, and five years into the job, she can handle a fight and knows how to fight. De Lima has to run for senator and win, not just to prove a point that good candidates should finish first, but also to prove that the Filipino electorates are maturing and will mature even more in the coming elections.
- Latest
