An accidental war

I was recently watching a highly respected American television interview show where the topic was the most dangerous threats to American security. According to the panelists, the most dangerous threat was the possibility of a renewed nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia or any other nation that possessed nuclear bombs.

It was the second most dangerous threat to world security that captured my intention. One of the panelists said that the possibility of an “accidental” war between China and its neighboring countries could drag the United States into armed conflict with China.

The list of countries that might have an accidental confrontation with China included Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. Recent events, however, showed that Indonesia should have been included.

A series of recent events in the West Philippine Sea should serve as warning to a possible confrontation with China.  A week ago our Department of Foreign Affairs accused Chinese fishermen in 24 boats of harvesting giant clams – considered as endangered species – in the Panatag shoal. This is not the first time nor – I believe – the last time that Chinese fishermen will continue to harvest all types of endangered species in the West Philippine Sea.

More ominous was the fact that a Chinese vessel intentionally rammed three Filipino boats carrying 29 fishermen at Panatag Shoal last Jan. 29. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs, the three Filipino boats were intentionally rammed by a ship with Chinese markings. Unfortunately, both the public and our lawmakers failed to take notice of this dangerous incident since it occurred four days after the Mamasapano encounter.

A week ago, Indonesian President Joko Widodo came for a two-day visit to the Philippines to hold bilateral talks with President Aquino. I can only surmise that one of the objectives in their meeting was to agree on a common approach towards handling the territorial claims of China. Natuna Island is located southwest of the disputed Spratly Islands. It is said to have rich offshore deposits of natural gas and is being claimed by China and Indonesia.

In its territorial disputes with China, the Philippines is the only country that has decided to take the legal high ground in pressing for its claims. We have filed a case against China before the United Nations arbitral tribunal which seeks to invalidate Beijing’s territorial claims and stop its invasion into Philippine exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

China is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security council and yet it refuses to cooperate with the UN proceedings and reiterates what is calls its “indisputable sovereignty “over the entire West Philippine Sea (South china Sea). It has continued with reclamation activities in at least five reefs in the Philippine territory and one of them is believed to be a military installation.

While the Philippines  chose the diplomatic approach to the settlement of these territorial issues,  other countries have defended their interests more aggressively. When China sent an oil drilling rig to the Paracel Islands, the Vietnamese sent their naval boats to ram any Chinese vessels that tried to enter the Paracel zone. After a series of confrontations, the Chinese government backed down and removed the oil rig.

Recently Indonesian President Widodo has announced that they will arrest any foreign  (including Chinese) fishermen found in Indonesian waters. Then he announced that Indonesia will build a military base in the Natuna Island which is being claimed by China.

Perhaps, the most significant development in these continuing territorial tensions is an announcement that the United States would welcome a Japanese extension of air patrols into the South China Sea as a counterweight to the growing fleet of Chinese vessels pushing China’s territorial claims in the region. Right now, Japanese aircraft are only patrolling the East China Sea where the two countries have been at loggerheads over disputed islands.

Here is an excerpt from an interview with Admiral Robert Thomas, commander of the Seventh Fleet and the top US Navy officer in Asia:

“ I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function...In the South China Sea, frankly, the Chinese fishing fleet, the Chinese coast guard and the Navy overmatch their neighbors...I think the JSDF (Japan Maritime Self Defense Force) operations in the South China Sea makes sense in the future.”

Japan Prime Minster Abe has recently been calling for constitutional amendments that would the Japanese armed forces to operate more freely overseas. This proposal has been publicly supported even by many foreign leaders in the West and in southeast Asia including Philippine President Noynoy Aquino. The best protection for small countries is to have a balance of power in their region.

In the West, the European and North American powers formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO) as a counter force to the threat from the Soviet Union. Although the Cold War has been theoretically ended, the NATO remains in force and is now the organization confronting Putin and Russia’s territorial claims.

There are now proposals that there is a need to for a formal alliance, similar to the NATO, here is East Asia that will bring together the United States and Australia and the countries with territorial disputes with China – Japan, Philippines, Vietnam. Indonesia, Malaysia, India – to serve as a counterbalance to China, which is expected to be more aggressive as it increases its economic and military power.

But the question is  – why does China continue to pursue its territorial aggressions despite world opinion being against their claims. In a book written by Bil Hayton and published by the Yale University Press 2014 entitled The SOUTH CHINA SEA: The Struggle for Power in Asia, he writes in the Epilogue:

“ There are clearly some within the Chinese leadership who would like to change the terms of the dispute and reach an accommodation based upon the principles of the UNCLOS. But there are more powerful lobbies that, for reason of profit or prestige, insist upon the maximalist claim. These domestic interests, particularly the military, oil companies and a few coastal provinces, pursue actions that pose threats to Southeast Asia’s food, energy and political security. These actions threaten the credibility of Beijing’s professed policy of peaceful rise yet the central leadership seems unwilling to rein in subordinates. For the time being, the legitimacy of the Communist Party leadership depends upon the approval of these lobbies than on the approbation of the outside world.”

Is there a chance of an “accidental war’? Hayton writes: “ The threat stems both from the possibility that one claimant might use force to evict another from some remote atoll, and also from the chance that strategic jostling between China and the United States could create enough friction to ignite an unexpected blaze.”

It seems that the best case scenario in Asia is a return to the Cold War status between China and its neighbors allied with the United States. The worst case scenario is an accidental war.

The ideal scenario, which seems remote at this point, is “ a Sea with agreed upon boundaries based upon universal principles and governed by shared responsibilities to use its resources most wisely.” Hopefully this could happen without the need for a war to settle the disputed territorial claims.

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Memoir writing class

Finding Your Voice, Leaving a Legacy on Feb. 22, 2015 at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street with Babeth Lolarga, Baguio based poet, writer, journalist and visual artist.  For more details contact  0917-6240196 or email [email protected]

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Email: [email protected]